{"version":"market-claims.v1","expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"stats":{"sources":14,"marketClaims":34,"explicitCalls":0,"directionalTheses":34,"ambiguousMentions":0,"openClaims":14,"median30dReturn":null,"lastUpdatedLabel":"recently"},"claims":[{"id":"mcl_96bcc3c3711b5bbae8","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_96bcc3c3711b5bbae8","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"A GPU-cloud builder betting $30B+ of 2026 capex on deploying capacity on schedule gets squeezed as chip-input shortages stall the buildout it sells, while its debt stack keeps growing.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CRWV","name":"CRWV","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovih9Xotmxg&t=2569s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=ovih9Xotmxg","timecode":"42:49","startMs":2569000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I think we should be also equally focused on things like the helium market because, that is just a very— that's a 1-to-1 input into compute buildout."},"performance":{"entryPrice":80.523,"currentPrice":81.745,"returnPct":-1.517579,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_639fc7a22c0342aa7d","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_639fc7a22c0342aa7d","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"You can't suppress oil volatility, only transfer it, front-month gets pinned while 2027 contracts and Oman crude above 160 keep ripping higher.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"COMMODITY","symbol":"CL","name":"WTI","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovih9Xotmxg&t=2323s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=ovih9Xotmxg","timecode":"38:43","startMs":2323000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"volatility can't be suppressed, only transferred... people are trying to suppress the volatility of CL front month futures. But then you look at what's going on in Oman and Dubai oil, and that's above $160."},"performance":{"entryPrice":96.8,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_d237aff2a693c6dc40","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_d237aff2a693c6dc40","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"South Korea is the cleanest short in this energy shock, it's the top destination for the cutoff LNG and the least energy self-sufficient, with a weakening currency on top.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"EWY","name":"EWY","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovih9Xotmxg&t=1179s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=ovih9Xotmxg","timecode":"19:39","startMs":1179000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"South Korea, again, Asian markets that are highly, highly dependent on the Strait of Formosa operating, they're the most at risk here. You pair that too with the fact that what we looked at earlier is a lot of these currencies are weakening relative to the dollar."},"performance":{"entryPrice":129.06,"currentPrice":180.14,"returnPct":-39.578491,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_2f7d8dbff12fec6706","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_2f7d8dbff12fec6706","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Bitcoin is quietly holding up well even as the dollar rallies and the debasement trade unwinds around it.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y60lUXB8Wd8&t=902s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=Y60lUXB8Wd8","timecode":"15:02","startMs":902000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Bitcoin's been honestly holding up quite well relatively, but I'm curious how you guys are thinking about that exposure and how it reacts to these changes in currencies."},"performance":{"entryPrice":68507,"currentPrice":61892,"returnPct":-9.655948,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_70caa6513aeeeaf4f0","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_70caa6513aeeeaf4f0","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The dollar keeps rallying as war drives safe-haven money into the US while Europe and the Middle East take the energy hit.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"UUP","name":"UUP","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y60lUXB8Wd8&t=839s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=Y60lUXB8Wd8","timecode":"13:59","startMs":839000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"the US, which is largely energy dependent and a reserve currency, And then on the other side of the Atlantic, you have all these countries that are much more acutely exposed to what's going on in Iran. My assumption with those two vectors is that I feel like we would see, and we should see a continued dollar rally."},"performance":{"entryPrice":27.8099994659,"currentPrice":28.34,"returnPct":1.905791,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_f8061ad5681d695ae1","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_f8061ad5681d695ae1","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Airline shares get squeezed as a doubled jet-fuel bill hits carriers with no hedge buffer, fares cannot keep pace, and margins on tickets sold before the spike turn negative.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"JETS","name":"JETS","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3uwf5BZy1Y&t=2714s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=m3uwf5BZy1Y","timecode":"45:14","startMs":2714000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"over the past few years, airlines have stopped hedging their jet fuel... So none of them are hedged going into this."},"performance":{"entryPrice":24.9300003052,"currentPrice":33.2,"returnPct":-33.172882,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_6001c04453a05ec267","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_6001c04453a05ec267","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Demand for AI compute is way higher than expected, everyone is getting smoked on cloud usage as agents try to actually do things.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NVDA","name":"NVDA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3uwf5BZy1Y&t=2818s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=m3uwf5BZy1Y","timecode":"46:58","startMs":2818000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"this is the GPU rentals, slide 45. Like we're clearly in some sort of secular growth in AI. Like there's no doubt about it... But look at the demand for this stuff. I mean, it's your GPUs or rentals are rising"},"performance":{"entryPrice":176.24,"currentPrice":194.83,"returnPct":10.548116,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_b70301b8bb745b9e85","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_b70301b8bb745b9e85","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"RMB-denominated Chinese bonds catch a haven bid and a firming yuan at once as oil trade drifts off the dollar and capital looks for a new home in Beijing's debt market.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CBON","name":"CBON","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SpniolSSPws&t=2041s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=SpniolSSPws","timecode":"34:01","startMs":2041000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"the hilarious part about all of this is that it's made China a safe haven for global bond markets and capital."},"performance":{"entryPrice":23.5849990845,"currentPrice":23.89,"returnPct":1.293199,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_434b910a814087d654","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_434b910a814087d654","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Non-US trades have been rinsed and it's time to go right back to that well, LATAM and China, as the dollar-down rest-of-world regime returns.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"EEM","name":"EEM","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SpniolSSPws&t=2990s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=SpniolSSPws","timecode":"49:50","startMs":2990000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"a lot of these non-US trades have gotten rinsed. And LATAM, China, like anywhere but US kind of seems to be like, I think you want to just go right back to that well."},"performance":{"entryPrice":60.2799987793,"currentPrice":65.7,"returnPct":8.991376,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_1a4bc9f0593bb8170f","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_1a4bc9f0593bb8170f","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"A basket of commodities is just required right now, given Strait of Hormuz supply risk and the suppression playing out across sovereign bond and commodity markets.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"DBC","name":"DBC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SpniolSSPws&t=2837s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=SpniolSSPws","timecode":"47:17","startMs":2837000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"a basket of commodities, even I mean, you have to be a little more careful, like we were just saying on the oil front and where you play the curve. But I think a basket is so required"},"performance":{"entryPrice":28.7099990845,"currentPrice":26.57,"returnPct":-7.453846,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_abd3f32da43594f49c","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_abd3f32da43594f49c","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Dollar hegemony takes a structural hit nobody has priced if a third of world commodity supply starts trading in anything but dollars after an Iran-controlled Hormuz toll.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"UUP","name":"UUP","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SpniolSSPws&t=2847s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=SpniolSSPws","timecode":"47:27","startMs":2847000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"to me it looks like a best case is an Iran-controlled toll paid in foreign currency. And if you remove a third of the world's commodity supply that used to be traded in dollars to now trade it in anything but dollars, That's a pretty big hit to dollar, USD, hegemony."},"performance":{"entryPrice":27.4799995422,"currentPrice":28.34,"returnPct":-3.12955,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_7fbe33d070501374ce","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_7fbe33d070501374ce","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Gold keeps poking its head up every time officials wrestle bond yields lower, breaking free of stocks as the hedge against the manipulation and currency debasement coming.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"GOLD","name":"GOLD","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SpniolSSPws&t=2497s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=SpniolSSPws","timecode":"41:37","startMs":2497000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"you see gold coming absolutely out of this severe equity correlation, like, grave that it seemed, and it's trying to peek its head back up. And so every time they like swap the bond yields down, gold rears its head."},"performance":{"entryPrice":4748.5,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_43e900b9c1dd5153a3","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_43e900b9c1dd5153a3","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Buying oil for late next year near 70 pays 20 to 25 percent as the war premium gets wrongly priced as already over and the curve drifts back up toward 90.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"COMMODITY","symbol":"CL","name":"WTI","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SpniolSSPws&t=2304s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=SpniolSSPws","timecode":"38:24","startMs":2304000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I've been very long the December and March 27. And those things were up the next day, which is kind of crazy... I felt good about that trade construction... I still just love that trade. I love my entry, so I'm kind of just holding tight."},"performance":{"entryPrice":95.78,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_496b44769527dbbf51","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_496b44769527dbbf51","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Shorting stocks just 3% below record highs is a gift when the ceasefire is fake, the oil strait is still shut, and inflation is about to rip.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"SP500","name":"SP500","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SpniolSSPws&t=0s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=SpniolSSPws","timecode":"00:00","startMs":0,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"If you were told you could short the S&P 500 3% from all-time highs when the straddle or moose has been closed for 45 days, you would take that blindfolded every day of the week. The fundamentals and macro outlook to me don't justify us being 3% off highs."},"performance":{"entryPrice":6818.3,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_6d0e2f1969c55c4085","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_6d0e2f1969c55c4085","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"A near-dead sneaker shell slaps \"AI\" on itself, rockets 580% on nothing, then bleeds back as everyone dumps into the pop with no real business and a dilutive note underneath.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"BIRD","name":"BIRD","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Weratj-dnOI&t=1020s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=Weratj-dnOI","timecode":"17:00","startMs":1020000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Allbirds, which basically went bankrupt, just decided to execute a $50 million convertible financing facility to pivot from direct-to-consumer friggin' shoes to becoming an AI compute infrastructure company."},"performance":{"entryPrice":10.9099998474,"currentPrice":3.85,"returnPct":64.711274,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_1b3bd9e986e40eda4a","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_1b3bd9e986e40eda4a","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The whole policy is to pump the stock market into the midterms, and with the deficit back down there is room to juice equities higher no matter the inflation cost.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"SP500","name":"SP500","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Weratj-dnOI&t=47s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=Weratj-dnOI","timecode":"0:47","startMs":47000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"The policy is pump stock market. That's what it is."},"performance":{"entryPrice":7022.1,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_4509d3fbbaec806820","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_4509d3fbbaec806820","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Energy stocks have a flow tailwind as pensions abandon ESG and scramble to own the oil and gas names they spent a decade refusing to touch.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"XLE","name":"XLE","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5TnXygEIy4&t=3542s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=E5TnXygEIy4","timecode":"59:02","startMs":3542000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"ESG was just a zero rate phenomenon and as soon as real life costed something, it went away"},"performance":{"entryPrice":56.9799995422,"currentPrice":53.22,"returnPct":-6.598806,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_3f59a0673ea73bc74e","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_3f59a0673ea73bc74e","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The AI compute trade still has legs, with Intel jumping 16% after earnings, so hold the boring shares through the vol and let the year long thesis run.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"INTC","name":"INTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5TnXygEIy4&t=3378s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=E5TnXygEIy4","timecode":"56:18","startMs":3378000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I'm in the bets that I built earlier in the month of this compute thing, and I'm not in calls. I'm just in boring shares."},"performance":{"entryPrice":81.523,"currentPrice":120.35,"returnPct":47.62705,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_4af6f8f129b5d029d8","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_4af6f8f129b5d029d8","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"December oil is barely off its highs and still climbing, a clean hedge to the AI compute bets while the supply shock keeps building.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"COMMODITY","symbol":"CL","name":"WTI","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5TnXygEIy4&t=3378s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=E5TnXygEIy4","timecode":"56:18","startMs":3378000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I think a great barbell hedge to that is going long December oil contracts."},"performance":{"entryPrice":96.691,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_1fd2cd17739ff90fc3","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_1fd2cd17739ff90fc3","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The dollar is quietly taking over, not fading, with stablecoins set to push its global use even higher just as everyone bets the other way.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"UUP","name":"UUP","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5TnXygEIy4&t=2824s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=E5TnXygEIy4","timecode":"47:04","startMs":2824000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"US dollar usage is surging, which sounds very counter narrative to a lot of what you see these days about de-dollarization."},"performance":{"entryPrice":27.5300006866,"currentPrice":28.34,"returnPct":2.942242,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_2008145b8b07356c34","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_2008145b8b07356c34","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The US economy is reaccelerating with the consumer still spending, jobs surging and bank lending at the highest since 2008, even through an oil shock.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"SP500","name":"SP500","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5TnXygEIy4&t=872s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=E5TnXygEIy4","timecode":"14:32","startMs":872000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"the consumer's still spending even though prices are going up at the pump a lot. The ADP data, weekly employment changes, it's just surging right now. Like, we are seeing some form of a labor reacceleration."},"performance":{"entryPrice":7116.7,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_85d73717ede5b1c319","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_85d73717ede5b1c319","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Commodities and real assets win as the global business cycle accelerates into a deglobalized, secularly inflationary regime, not a recession.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"DBC","name":"DBC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SrXH0YsSuMk&t=1043s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=SrXH0YsSuMk","timecode":"17:23","startMs":1043000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"the shift from globalism and just-in-time inventory to protecting your natural resource sectors or what have you in this new deglobalized world is going to be secularly inflationary. And it can be also very positive for growth."},"performance":{"entryPrice":31.0799999237,"currentPrice":26.57,"returnPct":-14.510939,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_1b2a95725eb779d3f3","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_1b2a95725eb779d3f3","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The earnings boom is everywhere, not just AI, with small and mid caps getting rerated higher as the whole economy rips.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"IJR","name":"IJR","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K25wV7gF3oY&t=1541s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=K25wV7gF3oY","timecode":"25:41","startMs":1541000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"If you look down at like the mid-caps, the small caps, their earnings are actually looking really good too. So this is the S&P 600. Earnings revisions are heading higher."},"performance":{"entryPrice":137.6399993896,"currentPrice":146.48,"returnPct":6.422552,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_7d80b4d4dacb124214","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_7d80b4d4dacb124214","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Nvidia has loads of runway if Washington lets it sell chips into China, and that pulls the whole equity index up with it.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NVDA","name":"NVDA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3B4VvgJegT8&t=797s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=3B4VvgJegT8","timecode":"13:17","startMs":797000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"the big question at hand is whether they'll allow NVIDIA chips to be sold into China. Because if that happens, obviously like the, there's a lot of runway for NVIDIA, which therefore means there's a lot of runway for equity indices because of how much it's benchmarked to it"},"performance":{"entryPrice":233.42,"currentPrice":194.83,"returnPct":-16.532431,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_7ecf07ad5473b1e134","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_7ecf07ad5473b1e134","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Loaded up on oil producers as gas prices surge, because energy stocks crushed it last time inflation ran hot like this.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"XLE","name":"XLE","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3B4VvgJegT8&t=2332s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=3B4VvgJegT8","timecode":"38:52","startMs":2332000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Dude, I'm so long XLE right now."},"performance":{"entryPrice":58.0699996948,"currentPrice":53.22,"returnPct":-8.351988,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_9ccc3247532cbedcc2","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_9ccc3247532cbedcc2","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"The American consumer is running out of cushions, with incomes turning negative for the first time since 2022, and once the buffers empty things get hairy in a stagflationary way.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"XRT","name":"XRT","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75d6nz-5ENk&t=1178s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=75d6nz-5ENk","timecode":"19:38","startMs":1178000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"these incomes, they're accelerating to the downside now. And therefore, to keep up with such an energy shock like we're seeing, they have to tap their savings rates. So you can see personal incomes are trending negative now."},"performance":{"entryPrice":85.6100006104,"currentPrice":88.06,"returnPct":-2.861814,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_2c79fe440994cdb49f","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_2c79fe440994cdb49f","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Skip the giant tech names and buy what they spend their newly issued cash on, memory chips already tripled while the giants went red.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"MU","name":"MU","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9z4YYo9BQ08&t=1630s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=9z4YYo9BQ08","timecode":"27:10","startMs":1630000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"memory is up 3x over the last few months while Mag7 is down year to date because Google, Google's issuing $80 billion of equity plus their debt. To go and buy those things."},"performance":{"entryPrice":960.76,"currentPrice":975.56,"returnPct":1.540447,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_b65029728ff035bca7","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_b65029728ff035bca7","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Gold got crushed on a turbocharged Fed-hawk bet that won't pan out, so it rips back as the rate story flips toward cuts.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"GOLD","name":"GOLD","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9z4YYo9BQ08&t=584s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=9z4YYo9BQ08","timecode":"9:44","startMs":584000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"the market is fully bought into this idea of Kevin Wolf coming in next week to his first meeting and just being a turbo hawk, and he's going to tamp down inflation. So it feels like that's what gold is reacting here to. But I don't know, I just feel like, I feel like we're stretching the other direction now."},"performance":{"entryPrice":4179.2,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_c66be159d48761be93","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_c66be159d48761be93","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The market is wrong to price two rate hikes when wages are falling, the only way out is cuts, and even a frozen Fed eases by default.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"SOFR","name":"SOFR","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9z4YYo9BQ08&t=525s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=9z4YYo9BQ08","timecode":"8:45","startMs":525000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Real wages are decreasing. Like, wage growth is lackluster. I just don't know how you get this pronounced inflationary cycle without wage growth."},"performance":{"entryPrice":100.2900009155,"currentPrice":100.18,"returnPct":-0.109683,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_9cc30c1f9749eabc95","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_9cc30c1f9749eabc95","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"A classic low-vol summer grind up is coming as volatility rolls off, vol-targeting funds reallocate, and cash on the sidelines gets put to work.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"SP500","name":"SP500","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBdZAegipLM&t=2165s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=kBdZAegipLM","timecode":"36:05","startMs":2165000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I think he has the summer. I think like there's a lot of tailwinds ahead here now. I think like you have oil going lower."},"performance":{"entryPrice":7473.9,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_7e65924740161c5365","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_7e65924740161c5365","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"MicroStrategy is trading down into its NAV as the premium collapses, because handing capital to Saylor to leverage no longer beats real productive uses.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"MSTR","name":"MSTR","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5h2MYi_SufA&t=2634s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=5h2MYi_SufA","timecode":"43:54","startMs":2634000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"you suddenly have this narrative come to a head where you have MicroStrategy right now is really struggling and Bitcoin's lost for a bit of a narrative... Is the best use of my money and capital to just give it to Saylor to sit and either do more financial leverage or do nothing with? There's things to do with capital now."},"performance":{"entryPrice":85.86,"currentPrice":100.77,"returnPct":-17.365479,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_71252da17988ca906e","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_71252da17988ca906e","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Gasoline is stuck at the highs while oil sits at pre-war lows, but that gap closes once refinery backlogs clear after summer.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"UGA","name":"UGA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5h2MYi_SufA&t=649s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=5h2MYi_SufA","timecode":"10:49","startMs":649000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"those will get replenished and we're heading into peak driving season... but if they keep their foot on the neck of the crude price, it will flow into the finished products. It's just there's a lag... over when we get past the summer months, I would expect this gap to close."},"performance":{"entryPrice":102.5599975586,"currentPrice":102.95,"returnPct":-0.380268,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_bac8af27c2f70aeb6e","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_bac8af27c2f70aeb6e","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Bitcoin pops just from the biggest seller taking their hand off the beach ball, sentiment is at peak-bearish and it held above $58K on a huge liquidation.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18-zFIyoJAo&t=2231s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=18-zFIyoJAo","timecode":"37:11","startMs":2231000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"if strategy is the thing pushing the beach ball underwater, all they needed to do was just remove their hand... suddenly for the next 6 months it probably is just going to fade out a little bit. And that's all you need for a pop."},"performance":{"entryPrice":61754,"currentPrice":61964,"returnPct":0.340059,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_f4278020a00e20a36b","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_f4278020a00e20a36b","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Gold is the trade, it is all washed out with real yields peaking right as the reacceleration and inflation surge tops out.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"fejau-inc","displayName":"Felix Jauvin","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/8bb4adb0-3","url":"/trace/experts/fejau-inc","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"GOLD","name":"GOLD","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18-zFIyoJAo&t=744s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=18-zFIyoJAo","timecode":"12:24","startMs":744000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"the trade hasn't played out yet, but I continue to really like gold. And like, these, like, it's just, it's all been washed out. All the momentum's in these other sectors. At a time where it looks like real yields are starting to peak out here."},"performance":{"entryPrice":4175.3,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}}]}