{"version":"market-claims.v1","expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"stats":{"sources":13,"marketClaims":50,"explicitCalls":0,"directionalTheses":50,"ambiguousMentions":0,"openClaims":10,"median30dReturn":null,"lastUpdatedLabel":"recently"},"claims":[{"id":"mcl_14fde8ad50262dfe7d","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_14fde8ad50262dfe7d","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"HYPE catches the capital fleeing junk tokens: a perp DEX with real fee revenue recycled into daily buybacks, a structural floor that scales as the rest of the altcoin field gets washed out.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"HYPE","name":"HYPE","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tmqyabCiuLw&t=2328s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=tmqyabCiuLw","timecode":"38:48","startMs":2328000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"that's scaring people away from the tokens that should be worth a lot, like Bitcoin, Hype, and a few others."},"performance":{"entryPrice":30.4,"currentPrice":68.87,"returnPct":126.546053,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_25da9b71eabbf518dc","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_25da9b71eabbf518dc","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Borrow cheap and buy hard assets like Bitcoin now, this is the last plateau before assets go parabolic and money printing kicks in.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tmqyabCiuLw&t=1102s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=tmqyabCiuLw","timecode":"18:22","startMs":1102000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I tweeted, buy hard assets, yield curve control is coming. The implication there is that AI is probably going to accrue value to AI native companies that are already running the S&P 500."},"performance":{"entryPrice":67095,"currentPrice":61892,"returnPct":-7.754676,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_ddad13a48cec45cade","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_ddad13a48cec45cade","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Buy the big construction firms doing data center builds, a direct shovel on the AI spending wave.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"PWR","name":"PWR","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tmqyabCiuLw&t=1691s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=tmqyabCiuLw","timecode":"28:11","startMs":1691000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"maybe it's, um, maybe it's literally you, you go, you go out and buy shares in construction companies, larger construction companies that do data center builds."},"performance":{"entryPrice":523.9600219727,"currentPrice":668.31,"returnPct":27.549808,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_3caead47f1f0559d19","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_3caead47f1f0559d19","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Skip natural gas, buy the utilities selling electricity where the data centers actually get built, that is where AI demand truly lands.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"XLU","name":"XLU","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tmqyabCiuLw&t=1691s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=tmqyabCiuLw","timecode":"28:11","startMs":1691000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I think you want to focus on the manufactured commodity node in that system that I just described. So like maybe it's public utilities in the locations where there's a big data center build"},"performance":{"entryPrice":44.5900001526,"currentPrice":45.76,"returnPct":2.623906,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_0f9f91e2f2e057584b","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_0f9f91e2f2e057584b","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Retail gambling money piles into event contracts, and the app routing most of that flow collects fees on every bet while building its own exchange to keep the whole take.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"HOOD","name":"HOOD","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAPHfy4SGPE&t=1853s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=hAPHfy4SGPE","timecode":"30:53","startMs":1853000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"prediction markets are the new shitcoins. And so I think a lot of attention and gambling money has just shifted to other sources"},"performance":{"entryPrice":74.65,"currentPrice":112.73,"returnPct":51.011386,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_6e7791dcb0e9e50a7f","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_6e7791dcb0e9e50a7f","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Long Aerodrome, a real builder with lots of upside that is only down because the bad stuff is dragging the whole market lower.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"AERO","name":"AERO","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAPHfy4SGPE&t=1582s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=hAPHfy4SGPE","timecode":"26:22","startMs":1582000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"my favorite, Aerodrome... I think it's got a lot of upside from here. It's just the question is like, when does the good stuff stop getting dragged down by the bad?"},"performance":{"entryPrice":0.31946,"currentPrice":17.49,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_7e55dbe5baf5e3f20d","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_7e55dbe5baf5e3f20d","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Short WIF, the meme coin worth hating, it bounced from 25 to 50 cents and is right back to 23, pure garbage to whack on every squeeze.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"WIF","name":"WIF","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAPHfy4SGPE&t=1318s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=hAPHfy4SGPE","timecode":"21:58","startMs":1318000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"my favorite one to hate... It traded from 25 cents up to 50 cents, and now it's trading 23 cents. Like, in these violent bear markets, you get squeezes"},"performance":{"entryPrice":0.23487,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_9944bdb19f4d766279","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_9944bdb19f4d766279","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Short Coinbase as it implodes, leaner venues are converging fast on its volumes while it stays priced like the old king.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"COIN","name":"COIN","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAPHfy4SGPE&t=1565s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=hAPHfy4SGPE","timecode":"26:05","startMs":1565000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Coinbase is just imploding. You know, you're right. Like, this really is the technology market in 2001"},"performance":{"entryPrice":161.61,"currentPrice":165.48,"returnPct":-2.394654,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_1882f889192c068963","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_1882f889192c068963","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Long Hyperliquid against short Coinbase, it already does volume like Coinbase while valued nowhere near it, real revenue dragged down by the bad stuff.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"HYPE","name":"HYPE","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAPHfy4SGPE&t=1557s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=hAPHfy4SGPE","timecode":"25:57","startMs":1557000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Hypes trading as much volume as Coinbase now. That's insane. Hypes not valued nearly where Coinbase is"},"performance":{"entryPrice":29.684,"currentPrice":68.87,"returnPct":132.010511,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_25010fed84376869fd","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_25010fed84376869fd","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Would not be long CoreWeave here, it is just a landlord for chips that depreciate fast and its returns sink toward a boring real-estate empire after the AI wave breaks.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CRWV","name":"CRWV","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAPHfy4SGPE&t=620s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=hAPHfy4SGPE","timecode":"10:20","startMs":620000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"You have data center companies like CoreWeave, I think are a bad bet long run because for a variety of reasons, depreciation being the number one factor"},"performance":{"entryPrice":92.421,"currentPrice":81.745,"returnPct":11.551487,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_88754d9e26c38848f2","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_88754d9e26c38848f2","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"European defense names ride a locked-in, multi-year procurement wave as governments sign contracts; the pure-Europe basket of Rheinmetall, BAE, Leonardo and Thales is built to catch that spend.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"EUAD","name":"EUAD","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urPZ-qmn5Vs&t=2679s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=urPZ-qmn5Vs","timecode":"44:39","startMs":2679000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"soon we're going to get some good entries into some of these European defense stocks because I think that's, that, that's a mega trend."},"performance":{"entryPrice":46.7,"currentPrice":44.35,"returnPct":-5.03212,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_b0902e1d5a6404bc29","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_b0902e1d5a6404bc29","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Gold stays a long as the market gets very nervous and big money has no strong theses heading into radical change.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"GOLD","name":"GOLD","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urPZ-qmn5Vs&t=2663s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=urPZ-qmn5Vs","timecode":"44:23","startMs":2663000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Obviously I've been still bullish on gold."},"performance":{"entryPrice":5117.5,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_9203a9c7218478f4c7","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_9203a9c7218478f4c7","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Energy stocks are a core long in the basket, riding the surge in power demand as AI compute consumes more energy.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"XLE","name":"XLE","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urPZ-qmn5Vs&t=2663s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=urPZ-qmn5Vs","timecode":"44:23","startMs":2663000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"it's Apple, it's XLE, it's URA. Obviously I've been still bullish on gold."},"performance":{"entryPrice":55.14,"currentPrice":53.22,"returnPct":-3.482046,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_746d50a66f46e0854d","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_746d50a66f46e0854d","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Buy a basket of the big energy majors like Exxon and Chevron because AI is about to drive much higher demand for energy across the board.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"XOM","name":"XOM","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urPZ-qmn5Vs&t=2383s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=urPZ-qmn5Vs","timecode":"39:43","startMs":2383000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"if you buy a basket, I'm bullish. I'm bullish on your Exxons of the world. I'm bullish on your Chevrons of the world. I just— there is going to be much higher demand for energy in this, in this particular environment."},"performance":{"entryPrice":150.75,"currentPrice":137.09,"returnPct":-9.06136,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_bd0af1f3c59f4d4ea5","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_bd0af1f3c59f4d4ea5","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Constellation Energy is a way to play the nuclear restart, owning reactor power right as AI data centers scramble for reliable electricity.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CEG","name":"CEG","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urPZ-qmn5Vs&t=2416s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=urPZ-qmn5Vs","timecode":"40:16","startMs":2416000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"maybe you want to go out there and buy Constellation Energy, for example, right there."},"performance":{"entryPrice":298.5,"currentPrice":239.25,"returnPct":-19.849246,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_e3f76631fc97d1e787","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_e3f76631fc97d1e787","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"When AI wrecks white collar jobs and a credit crisis hits, the Fed and Treasury blast money from a fire hose, and that makes Bitcoin the cleanest hedge to just hold.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urPZ-qmn5Vs&t=26s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=urPZ-qmn5Vs","timecode":"0:26","startMs":26000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Like, they will absolutely do what they've done every single time since 2008, which is just inundate the market with helicopter money. And I think your Bitcoins will be pretty— looking pretty good there. I think that's the best passive hedge for that scenario."},"performance":{"entryPrice":62883,"currentPrice":61892,"returnPct":-1.575943,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_3d48c77f55d8040b5d","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_3d48c77f55d8040b5d","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Buckle up for political and societal unrest, and gold is how you're long that turmoil.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"GOLD","name":"GOLD","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gfth0Rs_1sw&t=3332s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=Gfth0Rs_1sw","timecode":"55:32","startMs":3332000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I think politically, uh, I think we're in for a lot of volatility politically. I think, uh, that's something if you had to wait along societal unrest, political unrest, um, you should do that"},"performance":{"entryPrice":5116,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_e752f54dba8f7e5e4e","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_e752f54dba8f7e5e4e","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Worldcoin is a phenomenal short, but only after it rips 50 to 70 percent and blows out everyone betting against it.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"WLD","name":"WLD","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gfth0Rs_1sw&t=2766s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=Gfth0Rs_1sw","timecode":"46:06","startMs":2766000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I do think that a lot of these coins are still phenomenal shorts. I mean, if like, if Worldcoin ever is up, you know, 50 to 70% over some period of time, uh, and it's, it's blown out all the shorts, I still think that's a— I still think that's a phenomenal short."},"performance":{"entryPrice":0.41304,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_ed70fdb0bba9914bc8","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_ed70fdb0bba9914bc8","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Crude benchmarks grind higher as the cut-price sanctioned barrels China hoarded turn into ordinary market oil, and the buyer of last resort has to pay full freight like everyone else.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"BRENTOIL","name":"BRENT","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohHC2cNk_sQ&t=2501s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=ohHC2cNk_sQ","timecode":"41:41","startMs":2501000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"by taking Venezuela and Iran out militarily... Now these are just going to become open market crudes. They're just going to trade like every other crude and China is going to have to pay up for them"},"performance":{"entryPrice":87.501,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_486cac8b8a573272f4","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_486cac8b8a573272f4","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"HYPE runs to 150 from the low 30s, the one crypto alt worth owning and the war just handed a cheap entry.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"HYPE","name":"HYPE","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohHC2cNk_sQ&t=3241s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=ohHC2cNk_sQ","timecode":"54:01","startMs":3241000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"we got a nice dip on, on the one crypto asset that's probably worth trading. Like, the hype, the hype went— did it go below 30? Yeah, it did. I got in around 31"},"performance":{"entryPrice":33.874,"currentPrice":68.87,"returnPct":103.312275,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_3142766b38b0c6c538","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_3142766b38b0c6c538","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Israeli stocks bounce 15 percent right back to the highs the moment this war ends, the dip is just temporary fear.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"EIS","name":"EIS","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohHC2cNk_sQ&t=2995s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=ohHC2cNk_sQ","timecode":"49:55","startMs":2995000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I think we got a good entry on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange too. It's off, uh, what is it, off 10-15% on this. It's going to go right back to the highs once this is over. So I think, I think if you're looking for like a quick 15% farm, that's a good one."},"performance":{"entryPrice":122.13,"currentPrice":120.48,"returnPct":-1.351019,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_e2289b0149faee62ce","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_e2289b0149faee62ce","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Faded the war the smart way, bought stocks and crypto while they were down, ate dirt as they fell further, now back in the money.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohHC2cNk_sQ&t=1145s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=ohHC2cNk_sQ","timecode":"19:05","startMs":1145000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"So I faded this war, but I didn't fade it with oil futures in my PA because I'm not loco, right? I bought stocks and hyperliquid when they were down. That's how I faded it"},"performance":{"entryPrice":69964,"currentPrice":61892,"returnPct":-11.537362,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_ad9c20837f35d8a628","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_ad9c20837f35d8a628","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"The war oil spike was a head fake, with the US and G7 able to flip a switch and reopen shipping, the price crashes right back down.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"COMMODITY","symbol":"CL","name":"WTI","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohHC2cNk_sQ&t=1211s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=ohHC2cNk_sQ","timecode":"20:11","startMs":1211000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"to be fair, I did think that oil futures are a fade, but I'm also aware that the negative convexity of that trade is so extreme that I could get financially wiped out trying to make 20% on my dollar. So I didn't do that"},"performance":{"entryPrice":83.446,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_384e54e54c58a6541f","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_384e54e54c58a6541f","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"NEAR keeps leaking lower as its Intents buybacks run at a fraction of what's needed to offset issuance, leaving a high-beta token riding an AI narrative that fades on any rotation.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NEAR","name":"NEAR","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOuj6Nv84HI&t=1072s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=FOuj6Nv84HI","timecode":"17:52","startMs":1072000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"NEAR is a money vacuum. Any money you put into NEAR disappears... Whenever you buy a NEAR narrative, it goes away."},"performance":{"entryPrice":1.4646,"currentPrice":50.525,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_3ece2d5623adfe278e","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_3ece2d5623adfe278e","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Galaxy is a laggard worth a spicy bet at 23, the bull case that had everyone buying above 40 is still intact and it bounces hard if crypto recovers.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"GLXY","name":"GLXY","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOuj6Nv84HI&t=2378s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=FOuj6Nv84HI","timecode":"39:38","startMs":2378000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"One laggard that I'm looking at is Galaxy. I think all of the reasons why everybody was so excited to buy it, you know, above $40 are still intact and it's trading $23."},"performance":{"entryPrice":23.295,"currentPrice":24.59,"returnPct":5.559133,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_2d34cbeb45df0f473c","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_2d34cbeb45df0f473c","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"The oil spike is a fade, Iran cannot hold the Strait shut and the second crude rips past 120 every country on earth piles in to reopen it.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"COMMODITY","symbol":"CL","name":"WTI","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOuj6Nv84HI&t=692s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=FOuj6Nv84HI","timecode":"11:32","startMs":692000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"They will not be able to shut the Straits for a sustained period of time... the oil price will force the hands of literally every single country in the world except Russia to go help out and reopen the Straits. Nobody can tolerate a closed Strait of Hormuz."},"performance":{"entryPrice":95.147,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_c23aff1e154b7fd3e6","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_c23aff1e154b7fd3e6","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Canton flips from a short to a buy, the contrarian way to play the same stablecoin and always-on trading themes everyone else is crowding into.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CC","name":"CC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAMx81Pkqtw&t=1771s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=jAMx81Pkqtw","timecode":"29:31","startMs":1771000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"the sort of contrarian angle I'm looking at is I was kind of bearish Canton. Now I'm not. I think that may be a very good angle to play into the themes Avi just alluded to."},"performance":{"entryPrice":0.13696,"currentPrice":19.01,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_fc65d78a842052caea","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_fc65d78a842052caea","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Hyperliquid is about to swallow commodities trading, the screaming pit traders evaporate just like they did when futures went electronic, and this is only the first pitch of the first inning.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"HYPE","name":"HYPE","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAMx81Pkqtw&t=570s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=jAMx81Pkqtw","timecode":"9:30","startMs":570000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Perps are the most effective instrument in the world to trade what we call flat price, just directional price of crude oil, better than any dated future that you have on the CME or ICE."},"performance":{"entryPrice":39.274,"currentPrice":68.87,"returnPct":75.357743,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_7134470f543217eca6","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_7134470f543217eca6","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Stripe is the Amazon of on-chain payments, owning efficient API commerce just as that slice goes from 5% to most of the pie, buyable now on private markets.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CRCL","name":"CRCL","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfGP6eNNh_A&t=2425s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=jfGP6eNNh_A","timecode":"40:25","startMs":2425000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"What about Stripe? You can buy that on the private market at a $90 billion valuation. That company, if you believe that payments, that agents will pay agents and that payment volume will like via those types of rails will just 10x, why not just lift some of that?"},"performance":{"entryPrice":94.587,"currentPrice":64.62,"returnPct":-31.681944,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_71dfebb797e06a2202","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_71dfebb797e06a2202","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Micron is a cheap way to ride the unstoppable compute spending wave, getting hit by Iran fear that has nothing to do with it.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"MU","name":"MU","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfGP6eNNh_A&t=2240s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=jfGP6eNNh_A","timecode":"37:20","startMs":2240000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"The megatrend that I see is like humanity is just gonna spend more on compute than before. So I'm looking at ways to gain exposure to that. And some of them are discounted right now. The simplest one is Micron stock"},"performance":{"entryPrice":376.24,"currentPrice":975.56,"returnPct":159.291941,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_74fc8c6fad6a78298b","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_74fc8c6fad6a78298b","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Buying the dip on the S&P, it's just a better hedged version of the big tech names with a bit less of the wild swings.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"SP500","name":"SP500","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfGP6eNNh_A&t=2139s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=jfGP6eNNh_A","timecode":"35:39","startMs":2139000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"for me, SPY is just a better hedged version of Mag7 with slightly less volatility. So SPY is something I'm dip buying right now."},"performance":{"entryPrice":6587.1,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_069a339d14cfaebe55","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_069a339d14cfaebe55","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Oil is going to crater fast when this war winds down, every war in my trading career was a great fade and high prices always cure high prices.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"COMMODITY","symbol":"CL","name":"WTI","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfGP6eNNh_A&t=297s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=jfGP6eNNh_A","timecode":"4:57","startMs":297000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"during my oil trading career, my professional oil trading career, pretty much every single war was an excellent fade"},"performance":{"entryPrice":113.2,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_848a4c360a0641acac","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_848a4c360a0641acac","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"SOL catches the capital that flees a broken rollup story: the council freeze proved L2s are centralized, ETH L1 is too slow to absorb the exits, and the monolithic chain already leads on stablecoin velocity and RWA flows.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"SOL","name":"SOL","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFmlpoE4YuQ&t=2178s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=uFmlpoE4YuQ","timecode":"36:18","startMs":2178000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"this KelpDAO thing was like the kick in the nuts that makes it very clear and present how bad that roadmap is... the security council of Arbitrum is just making arbitrary decisions about capital."},"performance":{"entryPrice":87.774,"currentPrice":81.26,"returnPct":-7.421332,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_50128e0c38edef10e1","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_50128e0c38edef10e1","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Do not be bullish LA or New York real estate, socialism is creeping into housing markets and it is hitting prices.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"EQR","name":"EQR","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFmlpoE4YuQ&t=2947s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=uFmlpoE4YuQ","timecode":"49:07","startMs":2947000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"you're starting to see that in housing markets around America, a bit of socialism, and you're seeing what it's doing to housing prices. I would not be bullish LA or New York real estate here. I've certainly been bearish London real estate for a while for the same reason."},"performance":{"entryPrice":61.55,"currentPrice":69.83,"returnPct":-13.452478,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_09cc4ba7d145746891","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_09cc4ba7d145746891","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"DeFi is not decentralized, it is CeFi run by random clowns, and the yields are nowhere near enough to pay you for the rug risk.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"AAVE","name":"AAVE","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFmlpoE4YuQ&t=1575s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=uFmlpoE4YuQ","timecode":"26:15","startMs":1575000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"you're taking all kinds of risks you don't understand when you lend at 3% to somebody on AAVE... DeFi is not DeFi. It's clearly CeFi"},"performance":{"entryPrice":94.679,"currentPrice":87.06,"returnPct":8.047191,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_1c7249d16c2512548c","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_1c7249d16c2512548c","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Samsung is ridiculously underpriced as memory demand massively outstrips supply, the same chip shortage driving the whole Korean rally.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"SMSN","name":"SMSN","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbzzF1gjTm8&t=1820s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=DbzzF1gjTm8","timecode":"30:20","startMs":1820000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Korea has memory. It produces DRAM, NAND. It produces packaging. It produces racks. It produces all of the unglamorous infrastructure that makes the AI current. SK Hynix just recently said Chip demand is exceeding manufacturing capacity."},"performance":{"entryPrice":188.99,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_aa2870b73b92c0e1b2","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_aa2870b73b92c0e1b2","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Korean memory makers are absurdly cheap with the chip market undersupplied by nearly half, an easy two-bagger from here with room for 500% more.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"SKHX","name":"SKHX","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbzzF1gjTm8&t=2119s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=DbzzF1gjTm8","timecode":"35:19","startMs":2119000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"When forward 12 months of physical chip demand is undersupplied by 5 to 10%, the price of memory doubles. Right now it's undersupplied by somewhere between 45 and 50%."},"performance":{"entryPrice":1165.3,"currentPrice":23.142,"returnPct":-98.014074,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_3779debd0abd20fe4a","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_3779debd0abd20fe4a","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Bought stocks and chips into the Iran scare because it was a temporary shock not a lasting trend, and now they are blasting through all-time highs.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"SP500","name":"SP500","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbzzF1gjTm8&t=725s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=DbzzF1gjTm8","timecode":"12:05","startMs":725000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Are the causes of the sell-off temporary, evanescent, or are they structural, fundamental, long-term? In commodity speak, supply shock, demand shock, or a structural trend. Trends you can ride, shocks you fade."},"performance":{"entryPrice":7349.9,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_ac9c1de85f001529a5","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_ac9c1de85f001529a5","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Alibaba's cloud and homegrown T-Head chips keep gaining as Beijing blocks Nvidia deliveries to force self-reliance; a no-deal summit cements the domestic AI stack and the demand that flows to it.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"BABA","name":"BABA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KD3b5ai0_PM&t=2510s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=KD3b5ai0_PM","timecode":"41:50","startMs":2510000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I don't think it's going to happen."},"performance":{"entryPrice":146.7,"currentPrice":96.14,"returnPct":-34.464894,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_7779b85c444acf64e3","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_7779b85c444acf64e3","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Sold down most of my Bitcoin to dodge the same headwind everyone feels, stocks mooning while Bitcoin tries its hardest, but it's the easiest 10 to 15 bagger over ten years.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KD3b5ai0_PM&t=3149s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=KD3b5ai0_PM","timecode":"52:29","startMs":3149000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"So, of what I reduced in my portfolio, that I alluded to earlier in the pod, about two-thirds of that was BTC, GBTC to be specific. I want to rebuy at lower levels. I'm still long-term bullish."},"performance":{"entryPrice":79444,"currentPrice":61892,"returnPct":-22.09355,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_82455c10106aa0b572","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_82455c10106aa0b572","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Micron is a commodity in a real bottleneck and its earnings are about to triple, so the stock that looks expensive is actually dirt cheap on next year's numbers.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"MU","name":"MU","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KD3b5ai0_PM&t=1717s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=KD3b5ai0_PM","timecode":"28:37","startMs":1717000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Memory, like Micron trades at 35 times earnings. Per the rule of thumb, DRAM price appreciation rubric that we sort of set out on the last podcast, earnings could literally triple or probably will triple in the next year or less. So in my view, Micron's trading at like less than 15 times forward earnings."},"performance":{"entryPrice":801.04,"currentPrice":975.56,"returnPct":21.786677,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_0daf61b99d53f1b147","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_0daf61b99d53f1b147","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Oil is pinned above 100 with the world bleeding 15 million barrels a day, and storage runs empty by September unless someone fixes Hormuz.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"COMMODITY","symbol":"CL","name":"WTI","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KD3b5ai0_PM&t=855s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=KD3b5ai0_PM","timecode":"14:15","startMs":855000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Hormuz is still shut. The world is short, like somewhere between 10 and 15 million barrels a day."},"performance":{"entryPrice":97.031,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_6fe5f82bf3f5ba5d7a","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_6fe5f82bf3f5ba5d7a","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"De-risking near the highs because the scariest market is one with no bear case left, and the marginal AI dollar may already be spent.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"XYZ100","name":"XYZ100","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLG_I-RmLTg&t=163s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=FLG_I-RmLTg","timecode":"2:43","startMs":163000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I think I sold it like $116 average price and it went down to $105 and now it's back and NASDAQ's ripping today. But I do think as a trader, you always have to understand that the most dangerous thing about a market is when it has no bear case."},"performance":{"entryPrice":29220,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_0feeead4068f27a7b1","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_0feeead4068f27a7b1","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"A second hard inflation print lifts rate-hike odds and knocks the Nasdaq-100 lower as long-duration tech gets repriced against a suddenly hawkish Fed and rising yields.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"XYZ100","name":"XYZ100","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21bLw7Zay9E&t=2748s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=21bLw7Zay9E","timecode":"45:48","startMs":2748000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"if he gets hit with hard inflation numbers again, next month, we're probably going to see rate hike prices go up on those contracts even more. And that's, that's going to spook the market a little bit."},"performance":{"entryPrice":30329,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_99ab68b7466429de0b","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_99ab68b7466429de0b","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Sitting half in cash because this all-time-high market is purely technical and white-hot, with junk stocks ripping for no reason, ready to buy a collapse","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"SP500","name":"SP500","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21bLw7Zay9E&t=2039s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=21bLw7Zay9E","timecode":"33:59","startMs":2039000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"And we're starting to see some stupidity in the market... it's up 22% from where I tweeted about it, uh, for no reason."},"performance":{"entryPrice":7574.2,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_4c06e91eb9e9934010","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_4c06e91eb9e9934010","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The worst memory shortage in 15 years is sending Micron flying as DRAM contract prices surge 95 percent in a single quarter","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"MU","name":"MU","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21bLw7Zay9E&t=2606s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=21bLw7Zay9E","timecode":"43:26","startMs":2606000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"we're seeing DRAM, DRAM contract prices surge 95%, 95% in Q1 of 2026 versus Q4 of 2025."},"performance":{"entryPrice":965.36,"currentPrice":975.56,"returnPct":1.056601,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_d922cb778ef47757f4","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_d922cb778ef47757f4","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Palantir takes a run toward 200 purely because it is an AI defense stock and both themes are red hot, no fundamental reason needed","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"PLTR","name":"PLTR","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21bLw7Zay9E&t=2138s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=21bLw7Zay9E","timecode":"35:38","startMs":2138000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I think Palantir probably takes a bit of a run. Now, for a fundamental reason, no, but because it's an AI defense stock and both defense and AI are sort of hot now, this is the way that the market is trading."},"performance":{"entryPrice":156.47,"currentPrice":129.3,"returnPct":-17.364351,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_6b020881bcd25845ac","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_6b020881bcd25845ac","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Robinhood is finally breaking free from its crypto drag while 6 million Trump accounts pour in lifelong customers and AI agents trade on the platform","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"HOOD","name":"HOOD","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21bLw7Zay9E&t=1694s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=21bLw7Zay9E","timecode":"28:14","startMs":1694000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Hood's kind of an interesting one... Their price action has been really good over the last 3 days, and I think it continues... they were tied to the price action of crypto for a long time... And finally, it's broken away."},"performance":{"entryPrice":94.347,"currentPrice":112.73,"returnPct":19.484456,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_b87e2c9f50b3533309","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_b87e2c9f50b3533309","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Ethereum is doing poorly with no way forward, the decentralization dream it was built on is dead and even its own people are walking away","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"ETH","name":"ETH","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21bLw7Zay9E&t=1198s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=21bLw7Zay9E","timecode":"19:58","startMs":1198000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Make sure that Ethereum, I mean, even Ethereum is doing very poorly now... Finally sell out of their Ethereum. And it's because there's no, there's no way forward now."},"performance":{"entryPrice":2017.2,"currentPrice":1732.55,"returnPct":14.111144,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_1338e5d4983cf72f9f","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_1338e5d4983cf72f9f","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Rotate Zcash profits into Monero, the privacy coin that actually gets used has lagged badly while the hyped one ran","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jvb-xyz","displayName":"Jonah Van Bourg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/698557ae-3","url":"/trace/experts/jvb-xyz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"XMR","name":"XMR","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21bLw7Zay9E&t=1108s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=21bLw7Zay9E","timecode":"18:28","startMs":1108000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"that's one reason why Zcash has been doing so well, is because it... taking up the mantle of that thesis for Bitcoin."},"performance":{"entryPrice":372.01,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}}]}