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“Anthropic's valuation rests on capability being scarce; when open weights match the frontier within a year, the premium that justifies a $380B mark has nothing left to defend.”
Source
Dwarkesh PodcastYouTube“The most important question nobody's asking abou…”6:45
“by late 2027, or certainly by 2028, there's going to be such wide diffusion that even open source models will be able to match the performance that the frontier had 12 months prior.”
Performance
Entry$628.19
Current—
Since call— pending
Confidence72%
How this was scored
Entry$628.19Mar 11, 2026 · 18:57 UTC · paste.trade
Horizonnot specifiedparsed as default-30d
Verdict bandWIN ≥ +2% · LOSS ≤ −2%
Prices are point-in-time snapshots from the named provider. The verdict compares the return since entry against the band above.