{"version":"market-claims.v1","expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"stats":{"sources":12,"marketClaims":38,"explicitCalls":0,"directionalTheses":38,"ambiguousMentions":0,"openClaims":20,"median30dReturn":null,"lastUpdatedLabel":"recently"},"claims":[{"id":"mcl_711f65b5fe0acf1e62","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_711f65b5fe0acf1e62","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"High-yield bond prices fall hard as the distressed loan pile grows and a squeezed consumer pushes defaults up while spreads sit at cycle-tight levels with no cushion left.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"HYG","name":"HYG","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3uwf5BZy1Y&t=2472s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=m3uwf5BZy1Y","timecode":"41:12","startMs":2472000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"JP Morgan had their Default Monitor this week... this is the combined high-yield loan distressed universe. It's hit its highest level since June of 2023. If they can't figure out how to get policy rates lower, these things have a tendency to spiral."},"performance":{"entryPrice":79.5599975586,"currentPrice":79.71,"returnPct":-0.18854,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_5764224ac65c2afb27","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_5764224ac65c2afb27","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Stocks keep grinding higher because there's nowhere else to hide, fixed income is dead money and households are piling in.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"SP500","name":"SP500","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3uwf5BZy1Y&t=2172s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=m3uwf5BZy1Y","timecode":"36:12","startMs":2172000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I think they're figuring out that you can't actually save money in fixed income anymore because look at stocks as a percentage of household financial assets... I don't know where you put your money besides stocks."},"performance":{"entryPrice":6562.8,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_ed52e63248cde0e814","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_ed52e63248cde0e814","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Gold miners are sitting on fat margins yet trade like it's 2020, a rerating higher looks overdue especially if policy goes wacky.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"GDX","name":"GDX","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3uwf5BZy1Y&t=2073s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=m3uwf5BZy1Y","timecode":"34:33","startMs":2073000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"even though margins are more than double what they were at in 2020, the ratio is still the same. So if you have some sort of crazy policy, like a yield curve control or a tax on boomers... The dollar would roll over."},"performance":{"entryPrice":94.5899963379,"currentPrice":78.43,"returnPct":-17.084255,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_8444bd1748ec97363c","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_8444bd1748ec97363c","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Transport stocks are set to roar past tech, the same setup that played out right after the 2000 dot-com bust.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"IYT","name":"IYT","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3uwf5BZy1Y&t=1036s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=m3uwf5BZy1Y","timecode":"17:16","startMs":1036000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"this is the ratio between the two. And we're at a low where in 2000 we saw... the tech bubble burst and then the Dow Transports took off... if you see the capital concentration out of tech into real stuff, I think this line should mean revert to the upside."},"performance":{"entryPrice":75.2799987793,"currentPrice":87.99,"returnPct":16.883636,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_51784092f6e1c2ebbe","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_51784092f6e1c2ebbe","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The world is starved for AI compute, GPU availability has collapsed to zero, and the chipmakers selling the picks and shovels run like mad while everyone underestimates demand.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"SMH","name":"SMH","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SpniolSSPws&t=1214s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=SpniolSSPws","timecode":"20:14","startMs":1214000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"GPU availability for 200 has collapsed to zero. H100 is close behind. Whatever happens with the war, the AI complex is likely to lead any true sustainable bull market. Unsurprising to see SMH less than 1% from an all-time high."},"performance":{"entryPrice":430.3099975586,"currentPrice":592.29,"returnPct":37.642631,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_bb9a66b6e5283b87d6","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_bb9a66b6e5283b87d6","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The AI boom runs on dirt, metals and scarce gases like helium, and that hunger for real-world materials could push commodity prices and inflation higher.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"COPPER","name":"COPPER","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFRUQKxwJuw&t=2676s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=BFRUQKxwJuw","timecode":"44:36","startMs":2676000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"a lot of this is, is anchored to these real commodities in the real world. That we are dependent on to actually get to that point. And maybe there's some further inflation upside related to that."},"performance":{"entryPrice":6.1634,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_83896fa65d403ee5e3","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_83896fa65d403ee5e3","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Housing has a major demographic oversupply, and once boomers finally hit the bid prices crumble into a dead asset for a decade or more.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"ITB","name":"ITB","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Weratj-dnOI&t=1848s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=Weratj-dnOI","timecode":"30:48","startMs":1848000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"housing really has a major imbalance here. There's much more supply demographically, and housing prices will eventually, I think, adjust. Boomers have so much equity built up that they don't want to hit the bid, but eventually I think they will hit the bid."},"performance":{"entryPrice":93.6100006104,"currentPrice":102.9,"returnPct":-9.924153,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_615e2da072f7dba9c8","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_615e2da072f7dba9c8","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"AI infrastructure names have real demand underneath the macro noise, and Credo snaps back hard the moment fundamentals confirm what was always there.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CRDO","name":"CRDO","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Weratj-dnOI&t=666s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=Weratj-dnOI","timecode":"11:06","startMs":666000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"concentrate on the sectors that actually have underlying demand no matter what, which is like, AI infrastructure, gold, energy stocks"},"performance":{"entryPrice":158.9299926758,"currentPrice":241.91,"returnPct":52.211673,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_b2a802dc93287ea17c","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_b2a802dc93287ea17c","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"In a world where inflation outruns yields, you lever up and own hard assets like gold that grow faster than money is losing value.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"GOLD","name":"GOLD","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Weratj-dnOI&t=666s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=Weratj-dnOI","timecode":"11:06","startMs":666000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"concentrate on the sectors that actually have underlying demand no matter what, which is like, AI infrastructure, gold, energy stocks are probably buying back stocks."},"performance":{"entryPrice":4792.4,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_a32be7e30e93054f8b","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_a32be7e30e93054f8b","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Texas merchant power gets the scarcity bid as data centers crowd into ERCOT while other states pause builds, and the biggest in-state generator owns the capacity everyone fights to plug into.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"VST","name":"VST","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5TnXygEIy4&t=2361s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=E5TnXygEIy4","timecode":"39:21","startMs":2361000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"states are now stopping data center builds. Which actually reinforces the states like Texas that are allowing data center bills. It's like this suction of global jobs or US jobs will keep sucking to states that make it advantageous like Florida, Texas."},"performance":{"entryPrice":156.8500061035,"currentPrice":151.05,"returnPct":-3.697804,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_8f18926bf739e3aac3","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_8f18926bf739e3aac3","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Gold keeps climbing as governments redistribute, run loose fiscal, and let inflation run hot; the metal nobody can print becomes where money hides when the plebs win.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"GOLD","name":"GOLD","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5TnXygEIy4&t=2306s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=E5TnXygEIy4","timecode":"38:26","startMs":2306000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"the plebs are rising together in one way or another, and that's generally inflationary in a lot of senses."},"performance":{"entryPrice":4696,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_d32319bf8bf097ac32","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_d32319bf8bf097ac32","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"If the yen snaps past 160, capital floods home and the wall of tech calls gets force sold, turning a bulled up market into a crash.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"XYZ100","name":"XYZ100","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5TnXygEIy4&t=3083s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=E5TnXygEIy4","timecode":"51:23","startMs":3083000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"if the yen really breaks 160, the dollar wrecking ball kind of, if it breaks with volume and power, I think the dollar wrecking ball emerges and causes credit, credit problems."},"performance":{"entryPrice":26951,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_85300969ac29a9c3e7","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_85300969ac29a9c3e7","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Office buildings are going to just sit there empty as data centers replace them, a fundamental change that should be a depression in commercial real estate.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"XLRE","name":"XLRE","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5TnXygEIy4&t=1469s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=E5TnXygEIy4","timecode":"24:29","startMs":1469000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"a generation of men and women got wealthy off commercial real estate and now these buildings are literally like just going to fucking sit there. And I don't know what the hell they're going to do to them"},"performance":{"entryPrice":43.9599990845,"currentPrice":44.68,"returnPct":-1.637855,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_f4f84caa34bb9d02f7","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_f4f84caa34bb9d02f7","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Hardware and physical-growth stocks take over leadership as inflation crushes the sky-high valuations that only worked when prices were flat.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"SMH","name":"SMH","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SrXH0YsSuMk&t=1013s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=SrXH0YsSuMk","timecode":"16:53","startMs":1013000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"now we actually are actually moving into real growth, which is why hardware stocks are working now"},"performance":{"entryPrice":499.5799865723,"currentPrice":592.29,"returnPct":18.557592,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_bff9eb23e5f8a1ecee","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_bff9eb23e5f8a1ecee","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Uranium miners catch a policy-and-capital tailwind as the US races to build nuclear for AI power, with prices already near multi-year highs and a supply deficit feeding straight into the producers.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"URNM","name":"URNM","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K25wV7gF3oY&t=884s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=K25wV7gF3oY","timecode":"14:44","startMs":884000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"this ties into the AI trade a lot because what does China have that we don't is they have the power. They can build nuclear reactors faster... we actually are short power here in terms of like we need more power to energize all the models."},"performance":{"entryPrice":67.69,"currentPrice":52.83,"returnPct":-21.953021,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_4fec76b00edb560c4a","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_4fec76b00edb560c4a","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"The S&P snaps lower violently as the dealer hedging that propped it up flips into forced selling once the record call positions unwind, with no fundamental floor underneath.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"SP500","name":"SP500","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K25wV7gF3oY&t=2100s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=K25wV7gF3oY","timecode":"35:00","startMs":2100000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"this is S&P call volume... stuff like this makes me really, really concerned because it's all a giant, you know, just a giant like gamma trade... at some point, if there's a problem, the reverse is really, really bad."},"performance":{"entryPrice":7353.3,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_9a22231fb9d70d568e","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_9a22231fb9d70d568e","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"The biggest tech names could gap down hard, because their cash flow is far weaker than reported earnings once heavy AI spending bites.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"XYZ100","name":"XYZ100","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K25wV7gF3oY&t=2044s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=K25wV7gF3oY","timecode":"34:04","startMs":2044000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"this is the NASDAQ price to free cash flow is a lot higher than the PE ratio because they're set—"},"performance":{"entryPrice":28700,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_a5e3e7231c9cd88726","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_a5e3e7231c9cd88726","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Oil insurance is priced at three-year extremes, so sell it instead of betting on direction and let the inflated premium be your edge.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"USO","name":"USO","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K25wV7gF3oY&t=514s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=K25wV7gF3oY","timecode":"8:34","startMs":514000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"from a positioning perspective, I'd rather be selling like the price of insurance. If implied volatility is high, right? The price of insurance insurance is high. So if you have a view, you might as well be selling volatility here."},"performance":{"entryPrice":134.9700012207,"currentPrice":103.98,"returnPct":22.960659,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_7b2db644f929bb4bd8","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_7b2db644f929bb4bd8","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Stocks tend to bleed once the 10-year yield climbs past 4.25%, and with yields, the yen, and the dollar all hitting breaking points, the euphoria looks dangerous.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"XYZ100","name":"XYZ100","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3B4VvgJegT8&t=1914s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=3B4VvgJegT8","timecode":"31:54","startMs":1914000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"in the face of all the euphoria, I'd say, this is kind of interesting. This is from Piper. Median weekly S&P return when 10-year is rising by level."},"performance":{"entryPrice":29369,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_e3f556f855ab45da61","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_e3f556f855ab45da61","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The dollar keeps grinding higher as the yen buckles toward 160, with capital fleeing into US markets like a replay of the 1998 Asian crisis.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"UUP","name":"UUP","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3B4VvgJegT8&t=1797s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=3B4VvgJegT8","timecode":"29:57","startMs":1797000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"The yen no matter what they're trying to do, keeps bumping up like close to that 160 level and the dollar keeps going higher and higher. And I think we're obviously getting that 1998 Asian financial crisis influx into US markets"},"performance":{"entryPrice":27.6200008392,"currentPrice":28.34,"returnPct":2.606804,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_5a1ff25f94c1e7003d","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_5a1ff25f94c1e7003d","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"The AI chip frenzy is balanced on a knife edge, levered ETFs have gone parabolic and retail has piled in, so any disappointment triggers a brutal crash.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NVDA","name":"NVDA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3B4VvgJegT8&t=5s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=3B4VvgJegT8","timecode":"0:05","startMs":5000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"On a short-term basis, I do think we're like super frothy on the deriv side. If you get an unwind, it's going to be really painful, especially because I think retail's piled in here."},"performance":{"entryPrice":233.42,"currentPrice":194.83,"returnPct":16.532431,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_ff81806b6f7dbb17d4","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_ff81806b6f7dbb17d4","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"No market crash coming because credit spreads are far too low for a volatility blowup, just a massive rotation as frothy sectors deleverage and beaten-down ones squeeze higher.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"SP500","name":"SP500","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75d6nz-5ENk&t=2929s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=75d6nz-5ENk","timecode":"48:49","startMs":2929000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I think we saw a lot of the software stuff like Snowflake caused a big squeeze in software and I could see there be like a deleveraging of other frothy sectors and a short squeeze"},"performance":{"entryPrice":7573.2,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_ef32a17edc34d79947","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_ef32a17edc34d79947","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"America is just going to grow its way out of its debt mountain, which means deeply negative real rates stick around for good, eroding the value of long-term bonds.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"ETF","symbol":"TLT","name":"TLT","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75d6nz-5ENk&t=265s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=75d6nz-5ENk","timecode":"4:25","startMs":265000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"At this point, I don't think they're going to hike at all. I think this is, you know— This is wartime policy. And basically because we have a massive deficit, we have $1 trillion of interest, a massive amount of debt to be rolled, I think we're getting our answer, which is the market's telling us we're growing our way out of this no matter what."},"performance":{"entryPrice":85.7399978638,"currentPrice":85.51,"returnPct":0.26825,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_634280a928c348eacb","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_634280a928c348eacb","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Gold keeps bleeding as the dollar punches through 100 and rate-cut hopes die. Hot payrolls, sticky inflation and a hawkish Fed leave the metal with no bid and a broken 200-day.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"GOLD","name":"GOLD","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9z4YYo9BQ08&t=992s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=9z4YYo9BQ08","timecode":"16:32","startMs":992000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"the dollar was basically set up to break out this morning. Like we're watching it tick higher and higher through 100. And this is causing gold imploding."},"performance":{"entryPrice":4179.2,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_67cd255f8e34b5b8b3","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_67cd255f8e34b5b8b3","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Intermediate Treasuries climb as a Fed stuck too high gets forced to ease into falling inflation, with the front end and belly repricing the cuts the market has refused to price.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"IEF","name":"IEF","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9z4YYo9BQ08&t=762s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=9z4YYo9BQ08","timecode":"12:42","startMs":762000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"the policy rate is too high on nominal yields while inflation's dropping. So the Fed's kind of too tight here... breakeven's going lower, right? So I think inflation's dropping here. And the Fed is behind on easing now."},"performance":{"entryPrice":94.3399963379,"currentPrice":94.12,"returnPct":-0.233195,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_a6ebaedc8fd4de2238","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_a6ebaedc8fd4de2238","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Bitcoin is struggling because miners are dumping coins and flipping their cheap power to AI, which pays far better than mining right now.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9z4YYo9BQ08&t=2239s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=9z4YYo9BQ08","timecode":"37:19","startMs":2239000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"there's a couple of Bitcoin miners that are selling their Bitcoin to actually finance their AI buildout now. That's probably largely the supply of why Bitcoin's been really struggling is that the, the miners are actually transitioning to, to their power to AI"},"performance":{"entryPrice":62957,"currentPrice":61964,"returnPct":1.577267,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_ea858fe9694202b4a2","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_ea858fe9694202b4a2","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"The yen keeps grinding weaker near multi-decade lows: cheaper oil cools imported inflation, the BOJ stays gradual, and capital keeps a lid on any rally.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"JPY","name":"JPY","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBdZAegipLM&t=1287s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=kBdZAegipLM","timecode":"21:27","startMs":1287000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"the yen. This is a super long-term chart back to the '70s. You can kind of see we were basing from like, I don't know, 1985 to basically now."},"performance":{"entryPrice":161.16,"currentPrice":37.2677,"returnPct":76.875341,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_3ddc9b39803abc072f","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_3ddc9b39803abc072f","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Bitcoin loses its shine right now because money is chasing the AI buildout, a real productivity boom that pays better than a non yielding asset.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBdZAegipLM&t=2844s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=kBdZAegipLM","timecode":"47:24","startMs":2844000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Bitcoin serves a purpose long term when there's not real growth and when governments keep stewing the economy with fake money, right?"},"performance":{"entryPrice":62879,"currentPrice":61964,"returnPct":1.455176,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_708884eca4b9a1c29a","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_708884eca4b9a1c29a","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Money is fleeing the hyperscalers, whose cash flow is shrinking, and pouring into the AI bottleneck stocks that just keep ripping.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"VRT","name":"VRT","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBdZAegipLM&t=1612s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=kBdZAegipLM","timecode":"26:52","startMs":1612000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I don't think the hyperscalers will, 'cause their free cash flow is going down. They might not be the play"},"performance":{"entryPrice":333.049987793,"currentPrice":300.53,"returnPct":-9.764296,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_3deec9ade726296c9e","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_3deec9ade726296c9e","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The dollar is breaking out as tightening real rates drain global liquidity and capital flees into US assets, watch the carry trade snap.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"UUP","name":"UUP","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBdZAegipLM&t=326s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=kBdZAegipLM","timecode":"5:26","startMs":326000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"real rates are tightening global liquidity pretty hard. We're watching, we have a bunch of charts to back this up, but the dollar's breaking out here higher"},"performance":{"entryPrice":28.2999992371,"currentPrice":28.34,"returnPct":0.141345,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_e4d691f6c481f30fb3","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_e4d691f6c481f30fb3","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"You actually get paid to own bonds now, the rising real-rate spread flips the whole risk-reward of the 60/40 portfolio for yield-starved boomers.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"ETF","symbol":"TLT","name":"TLT","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBdZAegipLM&t=1113s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=kBdZAegipLM","timecode":"18:33","startMs":1113000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"the 10-year yield went to 450 almost and just gets smashed down today because it really is putting a pinprick in potentially growth and definitely inflation"},"performance":{"entryPrice":86.75,"currentPrice":85.51,"returnPct":-1.429395,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_31fbf2f5df91c21464","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_31fbf2f5df91c21464","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Small caps catch the bid as capital drains out of stretched mega-cap tech and hunts new leadership, with the Russell 2000 the broadest, most direct beneficiary of that rotation.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"ETF","symbol":"IWM","name":"IWM","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5h2MYi_SufA&t=2159s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=5h2MYi_SufA","timecode":"35:59","startMs":2159000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"you could potentially see a lot of money come out of large cap tech and go into a lot of other interesting stuff. And new leaders emerge, right?"},"performance":{"entryPrice":298.9100036621,"currentPrice":297.58,"returnPct":-0.444951,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_de7ab47d979d69ca88","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_de7ab47d979d69ca88","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"A beaten-down active-equity manager priced for permanent decline catches a bid as high dispersion finally makes stock-picking pay and the flows narrative turns.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"TROW","name":"TROW","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5h2MYi_SufA&t=1778s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=5h2MYi_SufA","timecode":"29:38","startMs":1778000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"the biggest loser in all this is... passive management and like closet indexers... there's so much dispersion in the market right now. And that's so— I think it's so healthy."},"performance":{"entryPrice":106.3399963379,"currentPrice":118.55,"returnPct":11.482043,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_fb1f4737866a000110","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_fb1f4737866a000110","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Bitcoin is a cockroach you can't kill, miners are flipping their power to AI for billion-dollar deals now but when they overbuild it swings right back to mining.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5h2MYi_SufA&t=3009s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=5h2MYi_SufA","timecode":"50:09","startMs":3009000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"it's so economical to sell your power to AI companies. Now you get a 10-year deal for billions of dollars instead of mining Bitcoin at a paltry sum at this price."},"performance":{"entryPrice":60266,"currentPrice":61964,"returnPct":2.817509,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_299010a363a2e33c1c","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_299010a363a2e33c1c","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Money is rotating into things actually making lots of money at cheap valuations, with chips like Micron running completely inverse to the old bubble winners.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"MU","name":"MU","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5h2MYi_SufA&t=3102s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=5h2MYi_SufA","timecode":"51:42","startMs":3102000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"you see the chart between like Micron and Bitcoin. It's like completely inverse. And there's that says a lot. You know, it's, it's because there's things that actually are making lots of money and they're at relatively cheap valuations."},"performance":{"entryPrice":1173.8,"currentPrice":975.56,"returnPct":-16.888737,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_a76659d0ec8b2600fb","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_a76659d0ec8b2600fb","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Industrials and banks are making new highs while the meme stuff gets taken to the woodshed, the rotation into old economy is on.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"XLI","name":"XLI","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5h2MYi_SufA&t=414s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=5h2MYi_SufA","timecode":"6:54","startMs":414000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"It's rotational. It's not like 2008 where you see credit spreads blow out. There's a massive crisis. Everything is going to different sectors. So that's sort of what I, if you're, if you're in the right sectors, like industrials are crushing it, making new highs, banks are crushing it, making new highs."},"performance":{"entryPrice":184.1199951172,"currentPrice":183.91,"returnPct":-0.114053,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_0289b15741a2d4d13c","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_0289b15741a2d4d13c","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The beaten-up debasement trade is good value here, all that got annihilated comes back as the dumb hawkish narrative fades.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"GOLD","name":"GOLD","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5h2MYi_SufA&t=326s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=5h2MYi_SufA","timecode":"5:26","startMs":326000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"A lot of the, the precious metals went from— what's so fascinating to me is how extreme things get. You get, you know, a couple months ago everyone was talking about the debasement trade."},"performance":{"entryPrice":4033.7,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_6b36f9631cc6411d26","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_6b36f9631cc6411d26","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"The dollar is rolling over and looks toppy after the market priced in insane hikes right as inflation was already cooling.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tyler-neville","displayName":"Tyler Neville","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c8236a12-7","url":"/trace/experts/tyler-neville","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"UUP","name":"UUP","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5h2MYi_SufA&t=326s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=5h2MYi_SufA","timecode":"5:26","startMs":326000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I'm pretty sure, you know, we, we're seeing the dollar rolling over here now. The dollar kind of looks like toppy."},"performance":{"entryPrice":28.4799995422,"currentPrice":28.34,"returnPct":0.491571,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}}]}