Jordi Visser (CEO of Visser Labs, Head of AI Macro Research at 22V) on AI, macro, markets, and the capex cycle. His own views and positions — not an interview.
Nvidia peaked on May 14th, 3 weeks before the AI infrastructure trade peaked... Today is set to close above the 20 moving average for the first time since June 2nd. Holding the 200-day and with a MACD buy signal at the lowest valuation in a decade. That is one of the 10 names.
Doge is retail energy. That's what I care about. I want to see it get above the 200-day as well. We're way below. We didn't even get above the 20-day yet.
Once we got to consumer agents, the next phase was that the financial guardrails would change and it would be one of the most important things in the history of the world... This is all ending. It's all changing. It's all morphing. And there is money to be made on this and lost.
If you believe that the demand is going to stay at a very high level and prices are going to stay at a high level for the next 3 years, this is way too cheap and argues for a much higher PE than is normally there... They've already built in a bearish outcome in terms of multiples.
I started talking about the fact that I was getting out of Micron in the middle of May... My goal was to be in a position where I'm probably going to be buying some back at some point soon, especially after the SK Hynix deal that went through today.
We saw massive inflow in the SOXX, and SK Hynix today offering more than 7 times oversubscribed. It also traded up.
This is Apple stock price as we got to all-time highs... That there is when they did their AI Siri announcement. It made an all-time high, it sold off. That was a sell the news event.
I make the argument that if they did end up selling any of their CapEx capacity, it would be because they can't get their consumer agents working the way they want. Yet. It's coming, guys.
He's been all over trying to argue that you want to own your own stuff before Anthropic and OpenAI steal it. Obviously, he's talking his own book. It's still a name in my 100-name portfolio. I still own it myself too.
I think it is critical as we come into what I think is the only month that the Fed would really raise rates.