taiki
The Humble Farmer (@thehumblefarmer) — Taiki Maeda, crypto investor and CEO of HFA Research, sharing his own market theses and live positions, mostly in solo monologue videos.
Speakers
Recent episodes
Bears were Right. I was Wrong. I Got Rekt.
youtube/Jun 9
Bears are Wrong. Crypto is Going So Much Higher.
youtube/May 19
Why Bitcoin is About to Print A God Candle
youtube/May 4
BTC Bottom is in: Breaking the 4 Year Cycle
youtube/Apr 15
The Bottom Is In.
youtube/Mar 16
Shorting Ethereum: My Life-Changing Trade
youtube/Feb 1
Why I’m Shorting $1M of ETH (Again)
youtube/Dec 17
Closed my ETH Short. What’s Next for Crypto?
youtube/Nov 25
Latest calls
BTC/long/@TaikiMaeda2
Bitcoin is still a real store of value but Saylor's Stretch leverage adds execution risk; held with cost basis ~$69K.
Saylor buys a lot, Bitcoin goes up. Saylor stops buying a lot, We go down, right?
Peak+8.8%
HYPE/long/@TaikiMaeda2
Hyperliquid is a structural Perp DEX winner with secular tailwinds; own it as a long-term compounder.
hyper-liquid, you Obviously perpetual futures, Perp DEXs, they're gonna have secular tailwinds, right? Um, I think the pie, the overall pie for Perps are only gonna grow from here. Hyperliquid is a winner, it's gonna keep winning.
Peak+30.8%
ETH/short/@TaikiMaeda2
L1 tokens like ETH and SOL are structurally cooked: not money, and overvalued on cash flow.
ETH is money, Ultron money, whatever. And I think at this point we can say that it failed. So if you can't value it as a store of value, you have to evaluate it based on cash flow. And if you evaluate it based on cash flow, it makes no sense, right? It is like overvalued.
Peak+8.5%
ZEC/long/@TaikiMaeda2
Zcash is the cycle's counter-movement store of value, a Saylor/quantum hedge to Bitcoin; buy back if it retraces the dump.
Zcash was this more left curve idea around an ultimate store of value that acts as a hedge to Bitcoin... it's like a quantum-resistant privacy and the sailor hedge to Bitcoin. Also trying to be somewhat of a store of value... Zcash is silver to Bitcoin's gold
Peak+23.5%
BTC/long/@TaikiMaeda2
Bitcoin bottomed at $60K as peak bearishness exhausted sellers; positive reflexive loop drives it higher.
we hit the lowest Fear and Greed rating in the history of crypto's existence last month at $66K, which is kind of hard to believe because I don't think it was that bad.
Peak+1.8%
HYPE/long/@TaikiMaeda2
Hyperliquid is the leader of perps capturing RWA volume; revenue buys back the token, driving it past $100.
I think hype is the leader of perps. I think most long-tail alts are going to go to zero and most of the volume is going to go to like RWAs, like, you know, gold, oil, stocks and whatnot. And obviously Hyperliquid is doing well on that front.
Peak+62.4%
ZEC/long/@TaikiMaeda2
Zcash is a reflexive privacy store of value breaking out of a 10-year base; insurance against Bitcoin risks.
Zcash, I really like. The more I think about it, the more I look into it, it makes me want to buy more. I've been buying more... I first bought around $388. I bought more at like $598. I bought more at $550, and now my average is like $500.
Peak+24.2%
MSTR/long/@TaikiMaeda2
Saylor buying billions at MNAV near 1 signals a bottom in MSTR premium; reflexive flywheel keeps working.
the fact that he's printing these gigabit candles when the MNAV is in the gutter, either this is a flash in the pan where he's literally levering to the pits and then he gets liquidated, or it's a bottom forming in the MSTR, MNAV. And if it's the latter, it's very bullish
Peak+6.0%
STRC/long/@TaikiMaeda2
Boomer demand for Stretch's 11.5% yield funds Saylor's Bitcoin buying; product working, leverage not yet crowded.
the second largest holding in this BlackRock fixed income security preferred shares ETF is Stretch, you know, which is— I mean, you know, we have all these anons on Twitter complaining about Stretch, but BlackRock's like, cool
Peak+0.1%
ZEC/long/@TaikiMaeda2
Zcash is the most reflexive coin around; price leads narrative, so a break above $500 sends it parabolic.
the higher this thing goes, the more it's like price leads narrative, like the more fundamentally sound it gets
Peak+67.0%