SKHX/long
HBM memory scarcity is structural through 2030 — SK Hynix, commanding 62% market share, is the price-setter in an unresolvable shortage.
the DRAM/HBM price surge
Peak+5.0%
From Matsuoka's quantitative AI infrastructure paper: routed long MU (structural DRAM/HBM shortage through 2030) and long META (pre-repricing fleet gives 3x incumbent cost moat + new compute-resale revenue). Dropped NVDA short (too indirect) and MSFT/GOOGL short (co-modal scenarios, no directional edge).
originalthe DRAM/HBM price surge
A greenfield custom-silicon entrant removes the merchant margin but not the memory premium (central outcome: 25% success/34% mediocre/41% loss, improvable via staged go/no-go gates)
the most severe repricing in the industry's history. Conventional DRAM contract prices rose on the order of 90% in Q1 2026 over Q4 2025
Meta is standing up a compute-resale business ("Meta Compute") on top of a capex program guided to $125–145B for 2026