Dude, I'm so long XLE right now.
The yen no matter what they're trying to do, keeps bumping up like close to that 160 level and the dollar keeps going higher and higher. And I think we're obviously getting that 1998 Asian financial crisis influx into US markets
So for me, it's like play commodities, which you benefit from inflation protection and the running it hot of growth and be short bonds as your hedge.
And because all the easing, all the suppression, all the stuff they do, makes the problems on the long end worse. So as long as you're not betting on zero DTEs on TLT and you've structured your trade so you have time to watch for it to play out, there's one path that this leads.
the big question at hand is whether they'll allow NVIDIA chips to be sold into China. Because if that happens, obviously like the, there's a lot of runway for NVIDIA, which therefore means there's a lot of runway for equity indices because of how much it's benchmarked to it
On a short-term basis, I do think we're like super frothy on the deriv side. If you get an unwind, it's going to be really painful, especially because I think retail's piled in here.
if you look at the NASDAQ to equal weight or not, like any main street index, they're crushed. Regional banks smoked. XRT retail smoked.
in the face of all the euphoria, I'd say, this is kind of interesting. This is from Piper. Median weekly S&P return when 10-year is rising by level.
Sanders and AOC just introduced a bill to halt all data center— all AI data center construction.