4 trades from @_tolks's multi-asset "insider ceasefire signal" thesis: short crude oil (war premium unwinding), short gold (safe-haven bid collapsing), long S&P 500 (de-escalation + soft CPI + earnings), long BTC (risk-on rotation + memory trade).
originalgold, silver & coins higher signal that unwillingness to let them go higher is understand by the market & their decline/topping here creates a lot of structural/mechanical buying that help us climb the wall of worry
they suggest a resolution, taco and/or ceasefire is coming instead
pretty impressive bounce across the board from the lows yesterday & into premarket today. still think the admin has no tolerance for yields, dxy & oil higher
you can't convince me these assets (admin insiders) would be trading like this if they were concerned about further escalation, more strikes or any form of prolonged engagement