Phosphate and potash supply chains have been disrupted by the Strait of Hormuz crisis, since the Persian Gulf moves roughly a third of global urea exports.

The bipartisan American consensus on critical-minerals decoupling has created a Western premium for non-Chinese supply of copper, nickel, lithium, cobalt, rare earths, and graphite.

Since February’s strikes and Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Asian spot LNG prices have spiked more than 140% above pre-war levels. The IEA has called it “the greatest threat to global energy security in history.”