AI revenue stays orders of magnitude below AGI-pricing, so the capex buildout decelerates and its chief beneficiary derates.
Models keep getting more impressive at the rate that the short timelines people predict, but more useful at the rate that the long timelines people predict.
Peak+13.9%
RLVR has no reliable scaling trend, so reasoning-model moats are overhyped and OpenAI's valuation gets repriced down.
But people are trying to launder the prestige that free-training scaling has, which is almost as predictable as a physical law of the universe, to justify bullish predictions about reinforcement learning from verifiable reward, for which we have no well publicly known trend.
Peak+36.1%