TSLA/long
Optimus humanoids displacing warehouse sorting plus an order-of-magnitude cheaper xAI training stack
We will see the same exact thing happen with Optimus. You may have seen the figure robots sorting packages.
Peak+0.5%
LLY/long
Chamath counters that the deepest incumbency moat is a regulated drugmaker, since FDA-trial timelines and biologics manufacturing cannot be disrupted by software the way distribution can. 'The regulated pharma company' has no ticker, so the cleanest large-cap expression of that incumbency-moat long is Eli Lilly.
[Jason] I'm going to take Boeing. [Chamath] Good luck making drugs out of an Excel spreadsheet. I'll take the regulated pharma company. Good luck, sir.
Peak+13.8%
ANTHROPIC/short
Most-funded lab is also the loudest doomer; regulatory-capture or 'midwife a deity' motive looms over the IPO
Anthropic is a mystery to me. I've never ever seen a company that is both leading their field and the most negatively outspoken commenter on what they do.
Peak+1.8%
ANTHROPIC/long
Anthropic compounding at 10x vs OpenAI 3x means 90% share in two years if it holds; Claude crushing on product
if you look at the growth rates right now, Anthropic does seem to be pulling away.
Peak+23.4%
MSFT/short
Claude beating Copilot 'by a lot' on Excel undercuts Microsoft's flagship AI productivity story
Claude for Excel is better than co-pilot by not by a little, by a lot.
Peak+18.2%
MTW/long
Structural shortage of plumbers, electricians and HVAC techs as AI-displaced workers reskill into trades
Massive shortage for plumbing, electricians, Hvac, all that.
Peak+22.8%
AAPL/long
Jason frames Apple as the underpriced AI winner because on-device, open-weight models running on Apple silicon deliver 'intelligence sovereignty' the cloud labs can't. The non-obvious link is that Apple monetizes the local-inference hardware regardless of which model wins.
This is why I think Apple is just the dark horse in this entire race. If there is an open source product that can run on this hardware, the M5s, the, you know, 48 gigs, 128 gigs, the new Mac Studio coming out with supposedly a terabyte. That's changes the whole game.
Peak+4.4%
OPENAI/short
OpenAI growing 3x while Anthropic does 10x; share math says it loses ground to the faster compounder
I think Anthropic's now at they seem to have pulled away from Open AI, which is not surprising and something I I predicted.
Peak+19.9%
GOOGL/long
Waymo scaling from 3,000 vehicles displaces drivers; the non-ownership ride market grows through the shift
If you look at self-driving, that's obviously happening with Waymo with 3,000 vehicles and there'll be many more on the roads.
Peak+0.0%
AMZN/long
Amazon cutting 600k future hires, biggest robotics user, plus Zoox autonomy: margin expansion via AI labor
Amazon themselves... said we are going to eliminate 600,000 future positions and we are going to cut positions.
Peak+0.8%
XYZ/long
Block was badly overstaffed vs peers; a 50% cut (AI-washed or not) is a real efficiency catalyst
Jack Dorsey came out and said that he was going to do a 50% elimination because of AI.
Peak+8.2%
WIX/short
Claude can build websites for free, so the whole DIY website-builder business is structurally challenged
Oh yeah, that was that's the website builder. Yeah, I mean, you can build websites with Claude. Yeah, the whole website business is challenged, yeah.
Peak+28.4%