Dan Sundheim (D1 Capital) lays out his worldview: hyperscalers face margin pressure as LLMs insource compute, SpaceX/Starlink expands TAM to global telecom, software faces AI disruption shorts, defense spending accelerates globally, AI drives productivity-led growth, and Taiwan semis are the defining tail risk of the decade.
originalAnd the pattern recognition, to answer your question, for me on Anthropic was just reading Dario's essays and listening to him on podcasts.
I certainly would not make the case that they are fantastic businesses, but I don't think they're going away like people thought because I think they're better at running GPU clusters than the traditional hyperscalers are.
I'm most optimistic in economic growth. It has to be the case that if you believe in scaling laws and you believe in AI, that economic growth will be very powerful.
Japan is probably going to become a military power at some point in the future again
I think we are on a collision course with China over semiconductors... to the extent that we don't figure that out, I think, you know, we're going to have something akin to the Great Depression.
there haven't been any shorts in AI... there was like basically no shorts prior to 2026, really... In our letter, I said like there are going to be a lot of shorts, some longs because of AI and Software is the first one.
I think there's really interesting things happening in Asia... Japan's probably going to become a military power at some point in the future again.
when we first invested in OpenAI... we invested originally at the $125 billion round. So I don't think people were entirely sold on LLMs as a business model. But if you want to invest in LLMs as a business model, OpenAI was kind of the, you know, it was the one.
I am more confident in the thesis that the hyperscalers are a worse business model going forward.
I really believe that scale in EVs is going to be important, which is why Tesla is kind of one of the reasons why Tesla's won.