by late 2027, or certainly by 2028, there's going to be such wide diffusion that even open source models will be able to match the performance that the frontier had 12 months prior.

while this year might cost $30 billion, next year it'll cost $3 billion, the year after that $300 million, and by 2030 it'll be less expensive to monitor every single nook and cranny in this country than it is to remodel the White House.

However, that bottleneck goes away with AI. There are 100 million CCTV cameras in America, and you can get pretty good open-source multimodal models for 10 cents per million input tokens. So if you process a frame every 10 seconds, and if each frame is, say, 1,000 tokens, then for $30 billion, you can process every single camera in America.