MSFT/long
Microsoft mints a coding-agent layer that grows regardless of which model wins, GitHub at all-time high
The fact that we went from nothing to this scale is the market expansion. So this is like the cloud-like stuff. This fundamentally, this category of coding and AI is probably going to be one of the biggest categories, right? It is a software factory category. In fact, it may be bigger than knowledge work.
Peak+0.5%
WCLD/short
SaaS business models break as AI COGS soars; high-COGS per-user software companies underperform
Software as a service, incredibly low incremental cost per user... This is why not Microsoft, but the SaaS companies have underperformed massively in the markets because the COGS of AI is just so high and that just completely breaks how these business models work.
Peak+33.2%
NVDA/long
Nvidia stays the default AI accelerator; even prior-gen Nvidia beats custom silicon on fleet TCO
the thing that is the biggest competitor for any new accelerator is kind of even the previous generation of NVIDIA, right? I mean, in a fleet, what I'm going to look at is the overall TCO.
Peak+25.1%
ORCL/long
Oracle scales from a fifth of Microsoft's size to bigger by 2027 as a single-customer bare-metal hoster
But like Oracle is going from like 1/5 your size to bigger than you by end of 2027. And while it's not a Microsoft-level quality of return on invested capital, right, they're still making 35% gross margins, right?
Peak+10.2%
SNOW/long
Agents turning Office artifacts into queryable backends grows the database layer faster than raw compute.
databases in fact will be a big thing that'll grow. In fact, if I think about all of the office artifacts being structured better data, the ability to do the joins between structured and unstructured better because of the agenting, what that'll grow the underlying, what is infrastructure business.
Peak+5.6%