As demand skyrockets, prices are going up for everything on the supply side. Whether it be the NGPUs, their prices are going up. In addition, their useful life is extending.

You see ASML is completely sold out. And they need Carl Zeiss to expand faster. Everywhere along the chain, everyone's either sold out and margins are going up, or they're getting prepayments.

Dario used to gloat about how OpenAI was being too aggressive on compute and Anthropic was more sensible in their scaling. And now Anthropic is like, fuck, we should have... I wish we had a lot more compute.

Memory can only grow capacity low double-digit percentages a year, right? 20%, 30% a year. Even less for NAND, a little bit higher for DRAM... the true incremental supply doesn't come till '28, which is a very unique thing.

I think logic also has humongous capacity problems. TSMC just had their earnings. They keep upping CapEx... they're not raising prices fast because they're good people, it seems like. You know, single-digit price increases instead of, you know, triple-digit price increases like the memory guys have had.

the semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment supply chain is one that I still think is, it's gone up a lot, but it's still very underappreciated.

even if you assume all incremental compute they've gotten has gone towards inference, their margins are at a floor of 72%... at the start of the year... 30-something percent gross margins. Where on earth does a business like this grow margins like that?

all the slop code you and I are generating that is now running on some Vercel instance... all of that requires CPU. And so CPUs are completely sold out, and demand is skyrocketing there.

I think in the next 6 to 18 months, we'll start seeing real breakthroughs in robotics that enable few-shot learning, i.e., there's a pre-trained robot model... You showed a few examples and it's able to do it.