there's some good trades to be short dollar-yen into the interventions, but you got to be quick and get back out because the thing ultimately that will make dollar-yen go back down for real would be like US recession, lower 2-year yields in the US, or coordinated intervention

as a new Fed chair, you have to be hawkish. You have to say we're committed to the inflation target. Like, that's just what you do. Every single Fed chair when they start tends to be more hawkish.

if yields are moving 40 basis points in a week, then stocks start to get scared and start to sell off like in 2022. So, I think it's more important to watch the velocity of it than the actual levels.

this new thing where term premium is going to matter to the long end again. I think the long end really answers to supply

there are two trades now... There is the front end right now, and I think that is going to happen in the near term. It's kind of the front end reaction, which is this, this, uh, bear flattener where you're getting the short end moving higher.

this becomes a duration story... I believe, and it's paying off today. I think the last I checked, uh, you know, healthcare and, uh, staples and kind of these more defensive sectors are going to be, um, the beneficiaries of kind of this muddied water

Now, looking at the broader risk market though, it's very obvious to me that we are at a point where there is a lot of speculation in the market, right? I don't have to point to SpaceX, which lost a few billion last year, trading at over $2 trillion in valuation. So there's a lot of just momentum and leverage chasing the market.

If it were to become very more volatile, funding costs would be more volatile. Yes, it would be more difficult for them to lever up on their basis trades, and that would make it more difficult for the market to absorb as much Treasury issuance as is coming.