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Speaker record

Alex Sacerdote - AISO Trace

Alex Sacerdote

7 calls

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Score31W·L0·3Win0%

Alex Sacerdote

@alex-sacerdote/guest

Avg-3.5%Win14%

Shows

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Top tickers

SKHX1 calls

NVDA1 calls

AEIS1 calls

ANTHROPIC1 calls

GOOGL1 calls

CLS1 calls

GLW1 calls

CRM1 calls

TSM1 calls

OPENAI1 calls

Speaker record

SKHX/long/iltb

High-bandwidth memory decommoditizes as AI demand leaves DRAM and NAND 30% short

memory, which used to be a pure commodity, this high-bandwidth memory is a stack 10 chips on top, you know, the input outputs are 10x what they were before, like took Samsung for years to do it. And it's a critical, critical piece.

Peak+32.0%

NVDA/long/iltb

NVIDIA rides 10x annual AI compute growth with the world structurally short on chips for years

When we were buying NVIDIA in 2023, we were paying 4 times earnings.

Peak+2.3%

AEIS/long/iltb

Delta and Advanced Energy ASPs climb 40% a year as each Nvidia chip needs far more power

in the power supplies, every Nvidia chip or rack uses 50 to 125% more power. And like literally that drives the ASPs of Delta and Advanced Energy.

Peak+27.3%

ANTHROPIC/long/iltb

Anthropic's coding lead and oligopoly position drive 10x sales growth into a multi-trillion AI market

Alex, you were saying that your highest conviction position is Anthropic right now.

Peak+2.9%

GOOGL/long/iltb

Google's Gemini stays a top-3 model winner, justifying it as one of the firm's largest positions

Gemini can never be counted out. We love Google. As well. It's one of our largest positions.

Peak+2.6%

CLS/long/iltb

Celestica goes from commodity contract maker to critical AI infrastructure with 50-60% Ethernet share

we noticed they were the sole supplier of the Google TPU server and we're like, oh my God, this was like 3 years ago. Stock was trading at 8 times earnings

Peak+7.1%

GLW/long/iltb

Corning's dominant high-spec fiber share rides scale-out and a 2-3x copper-to-fiber switch upside

You find these companies like Corning, like they make the fiber. They've got some ridiculously high share of the fiber. I was reading this Microsoft data center they just built. There's enough fiber to circle the world 4.5 times in that one thing.

Peak+44.7%

CRM/short/iltb

Enterprise application software gets squeezed and disrupted by AI, justifying a net short

We basically sold almost all of our software, almost all of our application software. We still have one or two small ones, but entering this year we were actually net, net short. And it really helped us in the first quarter.

Peak+19.8%

TSM/long/iltb

TSMC and ASML are deeply levered to the AI chip super-cycle as mega-cap holdings

NVIDIA sure is, and TSMC is really levered to it and Hynix is extremely levered to it and ASML is levered to it. So it's a great, so that's a new, we're 4 months into that one.

Peak+11.5%

OPENAI/long/iltb

OpenAI's improving enterprise and coding plus recursive improvement give it a top-3 model position

what was scary for OpenAI and Anthropic fighting these big companies like Google was they had these huge cash cows and to both of the management teams, credit at OpenAI and Anthropic, they were able to work in these super capital-intensive industries and find ways to raise capital.

Peak+10.8%

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