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david friedberg

13 calls

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david friedberg

@friedberg/host

Avg-9.7%Win38%

Shows

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Top tickers

BABA2 calls

MU1 calls

CL1 calls

TBT1 calls

TLN1 calls

USBOND1 calls

WHEAT1 calls

GOOGL1 calls

LLY1 calls

NVO1 calls

Speaker record

MU/long/all-in

An enterprise rush to buy high-RAM local AI boxes pulls more demand into an already sold-out memory market.

I think there's going to be a buying frenzy in the enterprise, not just with the Neo Clouds and the hyperscalers. I think the, the enterprise is going to be a buyer.

Peak+1.8%

BABA/long/all-in

As open-weight models commoditize the AI stack, value flows to the cheap-cloud open-source leader, lifting Alibaba.

there's currently a natural market force for two things. One is more open source, and second is a fragmentation of the AI stack.

Peak+12.7%

WTI/short/all-in

Bulk uranium removal makes Iran's setback durable, draining the last Middle East war premium from oil.

If all that enriched uranium comes out of the country, I think it's a very big deal because even if they restarted the program, even if they resourced the equipment, rebuilt the intelligence to do it, et cetera, et cetera, it's going to take years to a decade to 15 years plus to build enough enriched uranium to build a nuclear weapon.

Peak+13.3%

BABA/

long

/all-in

US AI safety limits push enterprises to Chinese open-source models, led by Alibaba's Qwen

And what are the best open-source models today? They're Chinese. Yeah, they are. And that is a major concern. The American open-source models are not as good as the Chinese open-source models.

Peak+6.9%

TBT/long/all-in

Inflation and out-of-control spending push overnight rates north of 5.5-6% under a Warsh Fed

especially with a Kevin Warsh Fed, I think we could see north of 5.5, 6% overnight rates.

Peak+4.1%

TLN/short/all-in

Talen faces a big external risk: US regulation could cap power prices or hamper terrestrial compute.

I just think everything in AI is going to need to grapple with increasing regulatory risk... the big negative externality for Talon is nothing to do with Talon

Peak+0.0%

USBOND/short/all-in

Yen carry trade unwind risk — rising Japan rates forcing dollar-yen carry participants to liquidate long-duration US Treasuries — is a live tail risk that could spike yields and crash bond prices.

this is one of those things that could be a catalyst for a credit crisis because there's a lot of people that are in this carry trade

Peak+7.3%

WHEAT/long/all-in

Friedberg forecasts a record super El Nino causing crop failures in Australia, Brazil and India and 'commodity prices spiking all over the world'; wheat is the crop he names directly via the Australia-to-Asia export chain. Chamath confirms commodity desks are already trading this.

in a year like this, when you have this much energy pumped into the atmosphere, you may not have the given and take. And that's where things start to buckle.

Peak+6.9%

GOOGL/long/all-in

Friedberg argues Google can win the AI assistant layer by wiring Gemini into Gmail, Calendar, Drive and Photos where users' personal data already lives, calling it a formidable, kick-ass product once the flywheel turns.

Google Assistant is going to end up being kind of a real kick-ass product once they get this flywheel going.

Peak+3.3%

LLY/long/all-in

Freeberg walks through retatrutide's phase 3 data and argues it becomes Lilly's premium upsell above tirzepatide, the high-margin tier where the real money gets made. The stake is on Lilly's earnings power, not just the drug.

Because I'm sure if I'm Lily and I'm sitting there and I'm looking at this data coming out, I'm like, my God, people will pay for this. And that starts to become sort of like the upgrade to the BMW or the Model S plat if you will.

Peak+32.3%

NVO/short/all-in

Lilly's triple-agonist phase 3 data crushes on fat loss, liver, A1C, setting a premium tier rivals lack

The coverage is coming out of this phase three clinical trial data release that Lily put out last month. So everyone's going crazy over the data, which continues to show pretty amazing results.

Peak+6.6%

DOW/short/all-in

New paper ties Dow-invented pesticide Picloram to surging young-onset colon cancer, teeing up EPA review and litigation risk

That row is a pesticide called Picloram. Picloram is a pesticide that was developed by the Dow Chemical Company in 1963.

Peak+30.8%

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