What are we scaling?

If the capabilities were actually at AGI level, people would be willing to spend trillions of dollars a year buying tokens that these models produce. Knowledge workers across the world cumulatively earn tens of trillions of dollars a year in wages. And the reason that labs are orders of magnitude off this figure right now is that the models are nowhere near as capable as human knowledge workers.

But people are trying to launder the prestige that free-training scaling has, which is almost as predictable as a physical law of the universe, to justify bullish predictions about reinforcement learning from verifiable reward, for which we have no well publicly known trend.