Memory Scarcity, Open Models, and the Restructuring of the AI Industry, 2026–2030 A quantitative scenario analysis of inference economics, training-cost divergence, and infrastructure solvency

Meta is standing up a compute-resale business ("Meta Compute") on top of a capex program guided to $125–145B for 2026

the most severe repricing in the industry's history. Conventional DRAM contract prices rose on the order of 90% in Q1 2026 over Q4 2025