@AviFelman / appears on 1000x, 1000x, 1000x, 1000x, 1000x, 1000x
I think Hyperliquid's kind of getting dragged down by the broader crypto complex or like held back by the broader crypto complex just because there's a lot of cross-asset holders there. I mean, obviously I'm a hyper-liquid bull
potentially come September, come October, if things start to look shaky again... that's going to torch the deal, and that's going to lead to another spike in oil prices, and that's maybe going to cause another tumble in the markets.
Mag 7's actually performing poorly, but that is specifically because of the dynamic that they're selling their equity, they're raising debt in order to fund CapEx buildout. And of course, what's going to happen there is that their equities are going to struggle relative to the semi, relative to the stuff that they're buying
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}AISO Market Calls classifies public statements from public sources. A classification such as long thesis, short thesis, or explicit call describes the content of the public statement and does not prove that the speaker actually entered, exited, or held a position. Market performance shown is calculated from public market data around the source publication or timestamp. It is not investment advice.
Bitcoin only becomes a buy down at 60 to 64k, maybe 52k to truly back up the truck, because there is no story left to push it higher until global liquidity floods back in.
Hood has started to do really well. We've talked about that on previous podcasts. I am continuously thinking that Hood is probably the better play rather than Hyperliquid.
he's selling his MSTR basically to accumulate a cash stack and then using that to pay out dividends, which is compressing the premium of MicroStrategy. And that, that's tough because we're kind of in a spiral right now. He either is going to need to pause the dividend, which of course is going to send STRC down even more, or he's going to need to reduce the dividend, or he's going to need to sell an exceptional amount of BTC
the United States is the place to be. And that's strengthening the dollar, which is obviously bad for gold. It's bad for Bitcoin. It's bad for commodities in general, which again, was like a big thesis for a decent amount of time.
that thesis was that emerging markets were going to do very well. The thesis was, okay, emerging markets are going to be 2026 is going to be the year of the emerging market... The rest of it basically sort of fell by the wayside as people realize that the only place to invest in true innovation and what's driving the economy is AI. All of that's coming out of the United States.
if we know that AI is going to be revolutionizing biotech and we know that new devices are going to come out, we knew that new drugs are going to be discovered, we kind of have to dig into this. And the other confluence here is that the FDA is a lot more lax courtesy of RFK than it's ever been before.
if Russia ever comes back online, if we ever end that war, that's going to be bad for uranium prices, but it might be very good for uranium companies that refine uranium, especially companies in the United States. That's why URA is so great. Companies that mine uranium will expand their revenues.
since social media got big, the vast majority of capital has been allocated specifically to the digital world... AI combined with robotics, combined with all the new American dynamism funds that are coming out, we are going to see a radical change in the infrastructure in the United States. We're going to see upgrades to the power grid.
it's possible that he just takes his foot off the gas when it comes to geopolitical issues, which would mean the theory or the thesis for America-first assets might end up weakening, right? So for example, critical rare earth, or the thesis that I've had for a long time, RE, like REMX, that trade I've had on for almost a year.
What matters for Robinhood? Are they able to generate more money and higher margins from equities?... are they able to capture the entire lifespan of a consumer into their product? Because they're trying to be the end-all be-all financial application and they seem to be doing that pretty well.
If you buy SpaceX here, you can go deep and say, 'Well, the revenues are $18 billion and compared to Amazon, it's so low...' And it's like, 'Enough.' That's not what matters. What matters is that there's 4% of this thing on float that index funds have to allocate to it and that retail is obsessed with it. And that makes it a phenomenal trade for the next month.
Bitcoin has really just become the sailor asset. And I think that's just, that's just not where I want to put my money. Right now we are in apathy mode. What I want is disdain. I want true disdain for this asset to buy it.
we could see a rocket in the markets... we're going to get the craziest sugar rush that you've ever seen over the summer, and then probably if inflation keeps coming in high, that's what sets us up for a real unwind.
I was long XMR, short ZEC because I thought the ratio would converge. That spike happens, you have to get out, right?
that sell-off today is the liquidity suck. That's why I think that the OpenAI and Anthropic IPO will be a bearish event for the market.
SanDisk is up from the recent low of $1,400. It's already back up to $2,000. It's pushing all-time highs. So I think that's probably a better longer-term trade.
If we trade down to $150 or really $135, because that's where that was priced, if we get to $135, that is a screaming buy. I mean, I'm shoving. I'm going to take an 8% to 10% position on that for a quick 50% flip from there
Midterm, I'm also rebuying uranium. I'm rebuying a lot of uranium after that sell-off. I'm deploying some of that cash. I know I said on the last But I was 50% cash.
I have no view on ENA. I personally don't think that it makes sense as an asset long-term... issuing a stablecoin backed by perps, I mean, it's a very 2023 kind of idea... My bet's in 5 years, it doesn't exist.
I think the chip trade is still better... whereas I think Intel could still get to 1 trillion. I think, what is it, 600 billion or something like that now? So I think we could get there on Intel.
I'm super bullish on Hood... my guess is right now Hood probably outperforms Hype over the next 6 to 12 months because Hood has a much larger, much diversified income stream.
I just don't like the idea of shorting Zcash because I'm actually quite constructive on Zcash.
I think that collectibles are a megatrend... right now what you have is you have a massive wealth transfer happening between boomers and Gen Z millennials. Gen Z millennials really love TCGs, cards, collectibles
which by the way is one of the reasons that I'm so bullish on Google and Facebook is because that is where all of the marketing spend is and will continue to be. And so these companies are like the best buy in the world because they're both producing AI, they're building out data centers, and they're a direct beneficiary of the downstream effects of AI
this is why, by the way, I'm bullish on Monero, I'm bullish on Zcash, I'm bullish on owning money... if you need to hide your capital from what you... believe is a government overreach, there is really only one way to do it, and that's with crypto.
And so the Fed's in a really tough situation. December hike odds jumped from 45% to 70%. Goldman dropped its cut call entirely. And I think that basically what we're going to see is we're going to see a call for a hike cycle and that is going to really impact the markets in the short term, which is why I'm still reasonably heavy in cash.
all of that engineering budget, reallocated to marketing means marketing firms get more money... which by the way is one of the reasons that I'm so bullish on Google and Facebook is because that is where all of the marketing spend is and will continue to be. And so these companies are like the best buy in the world because they're both producing AI, they're building out data centers, and they're a direct beneficiary of the downstream effects of AI
Buying a vehicle, maybe Ferrari 599, that, you know, there are only a couple hundred of those in 5 years could massively outperform the NASDAQ because these people... they're just buying, they're shoving into these scarce assets
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