“Long bonds are a trap, the real neutral rate is closer to 4.5% and every day the Fed sits still it is actually easing, pushing yields higher.”
“let's just go with my estimate of 4.5% on the neutral rate. At 5.5%, you were mildly restrictive. That's not enough to break the whole economy... And then now you've gone down where you're below that neutral. As soon as they went below 4.5%, all of these sectors have taken off.”
Prices are point-in-time snapshots from the named provider. The verdict compares the return since entry against the band above.