Forward Guidance

The Fed is holding the economy back, sitting a full point above where rates should be, and inflation scares are overstated, so rates need to come down to neutral this year.

The richest government-tied AI software name gives back its premium as state-control and equity-stake risk gets priced into a stock built for perfection.

Microsoft is a disaster losing the AI battle it was supposed to win with Copilot, the software giants can no longer be valued when agents make the decisions.

Do not be long the S&P with CPI heading above 4 percent, the unwind comes in the next six weeks and that is when recession talk creates the buying window.

Tesla is one of the hardware winners of the AI age, on the right side of disruption while the software giants like Microsoft fall apart.

NVIDIA leads the market off whatever low it makes this year, with Jensen guiding to a trillion in revenue versus the 600 billion the market expects.

Micron trades at barely 4 times next year's earnings while memory prices have exploded 400 to 500 percent, the cheapest hardware bet in the AI boom.

Dollar bonds from fiscally stretched emerging governments lose value as a supply shock drains reserves and forces spreads wider, with the fragile sovereigns front and center.

PVC and polyethylene prices jump to multi-year highs as Hormuz chokes supply, and a gas-fed Gulf Coast resin maker pockets the spread while oil-based rivals get squeezed out.

Europe gets written off too easily, still rich and tech-capable, and this crisis could force the EU to finally get serious.

A levered GPU-rental shop buckles under ~$30B of junk debt and one-customer reliance, the kind of overbuilder whose gear someone else ends up owning for cents.

AI is a massive productivity engine and over five years it will crush inflation, even if the near term stays noisy and volatile.

Long-dated Treasury prices catch a steady bid as Washington scales bond buybacks to cap volatility, keeping the long end orderly and grinding yields lower for anyone holding duration.

Cyclical value, resources and energy stocks are the ones outperforming now, all the ducks lining up for a late-cycle speculation phase.

Commodities are on fire and keep running as real economies accelerate late in the cycle, the force that ultimately destroys liquidity.

The yield curve flattens definitively by the middle of the year, because tightening liquidity sends investors scrambling out of risk into safe assets.

Commodities are climbing because the real economy is heating up, with rising working capital and energy demand pulling money out of financial markets.

The economy is reaccelerating with decent legs, and the cyclical stocks the market watches are confirming strength, not signaling recession.

Risk assets are heading into a rough patch, so cut exposure and build cash before the late-cycle turbulence phase hits.

Bet on volatility rising, not falling. With the fear gauge already low and the market swinging over a percent a day, there is almost no room left for calm.

Stocks are about to go violently parabolic, 2000 style, because policy is too loose and earnings are exploding. Buy every dip until oil breaks or the Fed wakes up.

Long bonds are a trap, the real neutral rate is closer to 4.5% and every day the Fed sits still it is actually easing, pushing yields higher.

Inflation is about to reaccelerate hard as a massive supply shock collides with the loosest financial conditions in 15 years, and the Fed is sitting on its hands.

Short-dated Treasuries climb as the tariff goods-price bump rolls off and the case for a Fed pause weakens, sending front-end yields back down.

Consumer stocks already look horrible and the energy squeeze on real incomes will make it worse, the strong-consumer story is a mirage.