“Alphabet's stock price embeds a near-tripling of free cash flow by 2030, but if AI revenue arrives slower than expected, its heavy and committed capex spending hits first, squeezing margins and forcing a painful re-rate.”
“the projected free cash flow surge slips later while committed capex and heavy depreciation hit on schedule, squeezing margins and marking down the forecast in the first chart”
Prices are point-in-time snapshots from the named provider. The verdict compares the return since entry against the band above.