Negligible Capital

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trades50published & scoreable

resolved1settled outcomes

avg P&L-0.6%per call

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Published claims

Negligible Capitalx/ Jul 15

person

KHCPackaged food is being hollowed out by Ozempic, with forward earnings multiples cut in half and dividends being slashed as consumers simply eat less processed food.

directional thesisSHORTpublishedxnot a verified trade

KKHKHCSHORT

Packaged food is being hollowed out by Ozempic, with forward earnings multiples cut in half and dividends being slashed as consumers simply eat less processed food.

$25.56

+0.23%

SourceConsumer staples as a whole versus packaged foods Packed foods forward multiples cut i…

“Packed foods forward multiples cut in half relative to historical levels, earnings have deteriorated and divs are getting slashed. Ozempic is wild.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span

Negligible Capitalx/ Jul 15

person

GOOGLGoogle's $135B Anthropic stake gets a public price tag as IPO investor meetings kick off, making the AI bet visible on Alphabet's balance sheet for the first time.

directional thesisLONGpublishedxnot a verified trade

GOOGLLONG

Google's $135B Anthropic stake gets a public price tag as IPO investor meetings kick off, making the AI bet visible on Alphabet's balance sheet for the first time.

$371.17

+0.48%

Source*ANTHROPIC IS SAID TO PLAN IPO INVESTOR MEETINGS IN COMING WEEKS Anthropic considering…

“*ANTHROPIC IS SAID TO PLAN IPO INVESTOR MEETINGS IN COMING WEEKS”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span

Agent-readable layer

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AISO tracks public statements, not verified portfolio positions. This is not financial advice.

Negligible Capital

KHCPackaged food is being hollowed out by Ozempic, with forward earnings multiples cut in half and dividends being slashed as consumers simply eat less processed food.

GOOGLGoogle's $135B Anthropic stake gets a public price tag as IPO investor meetings kick off, making the AI bet visible on Alphabet's balance sheet for the first time.

AVGOApple hunting chip companies lifts Broadcom most directly. Already locked into a $30B+ partnership with Apple through 2031, Broadcom is the go-to custom silicon shop every AI hyperscaler relies on, and Apple's M&A push only cements that demand.

AAPLApple goes chip-shopping for AI, and that's a new all-in signal on its own hardware roadmap. With $130B in cash and The Information confirming the hunt, the market reprices Apple as an aggressive AI hardware player, not a laggard.

NVDANvidia getting hit as the heart of the momentum flush, with Goldman's high-beta momo index down over 6% and AI chip factors fading hard from the open on July 15.

NOWServiceNow fell 8% in IBM's wake as the Q2 miss confirmed enterprise clients are slashing software budgets to fund AI hardware, directly threatening the same IT discretionary spend that ServiceNow depends on.

IBMIBM just had its worst day since 1987, plunging 23% after CEO admitted large deals failed to close and clients yanked spending away from software toward AI hardware — a structural shift, not a temporary blip.

MTUMMomentum stocks are seeing an unprecedented retail buying surge, with July 1st the biggest single buying day ever recorded for the momentum pair and four of the five strongest buying weeks all happening in the past two months.

SP500US stocks have a record retail bid behind them, with zero net sell days in July and buying running 3.2x the historical average, making the S&P 500 structurally supported at current levels.

SMHSemis rebound every time retail gives up the dip. Citadel Securities found that each prior instance of retail net-selling during consecutive SOX down days in 2026 was followed by strong T+30 returns, and the most recent cluster on Jul 2 and Jul 7 just triggered the same signal.

ZHIPUChina's hottest AI lab is going public at a $66B+ valuation, and the closest listed analog just got a massive re-rating catalyst. DeepSeek filing for IPO this year puts a public market price tag on Chinese AI for the first time, pulling up every listed Chinese LLM company with it.

BRENTOILBrent crude loses its Hormuz war premium now that the strait is declared open to all non-Iranian ships. Trump confirmed the US military has secured the chokepoint, removing the supply-disruption fear that drove oil's 64% YTD rally.

MTUMMomentum stocks are the clearest winner as the factor that's driving equities to a year-to-date high correlation, while oil quietly loses its grip on the market.

WDAYCourts are turning against AI-driven HR tools, and Workday sells exactly that. A federal judge already ruled against Workday in an AI-hiring case, and the Meta suit piles on scrutiny of the entire category Workday's business depends on.

SONOSonos faces a credible new rival in its own price tier, designed by Jony Ive and backed by OpenAI's AI stack, camera-equipped with facial-recognition payments and 2027 launch on track.

AMZNAmazon's decade-old Alexa lead gets undercut by an OpenAI home speaker with always-on camera, advanced AI models, and a 2027 launch countdown already pulling attention from the Echo lineup.

LIONLionsgate is in play as a takeover target, with Netflix and Disney both reported to be circling its Hunger Games, John Wick, and Saw franchises. A Reuters headline confirming a formal sale process is the trigger that brings bidders to the table.

PYPLPayPal jumps toward a $60.50 buyout price after Stripe and Advent International jointly offer to acquire the company, per Reuters, a 27% premium to where shares trade now.

SPCXSpaceX goes from 40 launches in 2027 to 5,000 by 2031 as J.P. Morgan models a build rate of 30 Starships per month, roughly one rocket every single day, with demand from orbital compute, broadband, and Mars missions absorbing nearly every seat.

METAMeta's 11% two-day rally is the perfect setup to dump $50B in new shares on the market, wiping out the gains and leaving longs holding the bag.

MSFTOpenAI walking away from Apple and lawyering up means its AI distribution flows even more exclusively through Microsoft, the company that owns the deepest stake in OpenAI and runs its cloud infrastructure.

AAPLApple's flagship AI partnership just exploded into a two-front legal war, leaving Apple Intelligence without its core engine and no clear replacement in sight.

METAMeta has lost ~9% over the past year as its massive AI infrastructure spending weighed on returns, a stark contrast to peers who opted out of the capex race and surged nearly 50%.

AAPLApple has surged ~49% in a year while rivals who bet big on AI capex went sideways or fell, showing the market rewards capital discipline over spending races.

METAMETA rockets into earnings as the AI bull narrative suddenly flips consensus, with Zuckerberg engaging publicly and capex ROI about to be put to the test.

SKHYSK Hynix's US-listed ADR is flying 21% above its IPO price on opening day, with demand so strong the $26.5 billion offering was oversubscribed, pushing indicated open to $180 against the $149 pricing.

DHIAmerica's largest homebuilder gets a once-in-a-decade regulatory tailwind as the biggest housing supply reform bill in decades becomes law, streamlining environmental reviews and rewarding high-volume builders with federal funding.

GOLDGold catches a safe-haven bid as Trump kills the Iran ceasefire, sending investors toward hard assets whenever Middle East conflict risk flares without a clear resolution timeline.

LMTLockheed Martin gets a direct tailwind as the Iran ceasefire collapses, putting the US back on a war footing and flagging increased demand for missiles, air defense, and fighter jets.

CLCrude oil jumps as Trump kills the Iran ceasefire, raising the risk of a shooting war near the Strait of Hormuz and putting 20% of global seaborne oil supply in jeopardy.

SKHYThe largest-ever US foreign company share sale, $26.5 billion raised and 7x oversubscribed, lands today as SK Hynix, the dominant supplier of high-bandwidth memory for AI chips, rings the Nasdaq bell after 15 years of wanting US access.

NVDANvidia's price is held up by the same hyperscaler AI spending boom that the Apollo chart shows depends on FCF that hasn't arrived yet, and a slower payoff sends the pain directly into chip demand, which the source names explicitly.

GOOGLAlphabet's stock price embeds a near-tripling of free cash flow by 2030, but if AI revenue arrives slower than expected, its heavy and committed capex spending hits first, squeezing margins and forcing a painful re-rate.

SP500The S&P 500 re-rates hard if AI revenue takes longer to arrive, because the Magnificent 7 are now so dominant that their margin squeeze cannot stay contained and pulls the whole index lower.

AVGOBroadcom wins no matter which hyperscaler blinks first. META is doubling compute to 14GW and co-designing its Iris AI chip with Broadcom, while OpenAI and Anthropic are also routing custom silicon through Broadcom, making the company the dominant custom chip house for the AI arms race.

METAAn equity raise is coming for META, and it will dilute shareholders. The company plans to double compute to 14GW in 2027, which Mizuho estimates will cost $245–350B, far more than META can generate internally, and the only viable path is issuing new stock.

ACNAccenture sells human consulting hours, and those hours are disappearing as companies automate with AI, confirmed by a wave of guidance cuts across the entire IT services sector.

NVDAIT consulting giants are missing numbers because companies are replacing their billable hours with AI, and that spend flows straight into chips.

MUMicron just secured its raw silicon supply for the next decade, writing a $500M check to its wafer supplier and signing a 10-year deal, while DRAM prices surge and AI memory demand accelerates. The supply chain risk premium on the stock should compress.

IBMA $400M/year enterprise software customer is cutting IBM out by building AI tools in-house, a sign that large companies can now replace expensive SaaS contracts without traditional vendors.

BABAAlibaba's Qwen AI model was picked to run on the iPhone 17 Pro, the most prominent consumer AI deployment of the year, putting BABA's open-source AI capabilities in Apple's flagship device and in front of hundreds of millions of users.

AAPLApple is in talks to put a full 27B-parameter AI model directly on the iPhone 17 Pro, a genuine on-device AI breakthrough that could be the upgrade catalyst the stock has lacked for two years.

NOWSaaS is getting gutted as enterprises like Starbucks use AI to build their own workflow tools for a fraction of the $400M/year they spend on vendors like ServiceNow, and the whole cohort is already in freefall with no floor in sight.

IBMIBM drops 5.8% after Starbucks announces it is replacing IBM's maintenance management software with an AI-built in-house tool, spotlighting how enterprises are cutting the $400M/year software bills that legacy vendors like IBM depend on.

METAMeta's AI models go from free to paid for the first time, unlocking an entirely new revenue stream priced aggressively to take market share from OpenAI and Anthropic.

METAMeta just cracked open a brand-new revenue stream, charging developers for its most advanced AI model for the first time, at roughly a quarter of what OpenAI and Anthropic charge. That combination of monetization milestone and aggressive pricing puts Meta ahead in the developer land-grab.

XYZ100Tech shorts are getting torched, and the covering hasn't stopped. Goldman data shows systematic L/S managers just suffered their worst drawdown since summer 2025, with Info Tech and momentum the top pain sources on the short side.

SKHXThe $28 billion Nasdaq listing is so hot underwriters closed books early, with over 7x demand and $7 billion cornerstoned by blue-chip funds, pointing to a first-day premium on debut Friday.