Back
“A card lender carrying elevated loss reserves gets paid as employment holds and defaults keep easing instead of spiking; the exact opposite outcome would gut it.”
Source
AviYouTube“Markets Hit A New All Time High, Whats Next?”50:40
“I have this thesis and I have a theory that AI is not going to cause massive job loss and not going to cause consumer spending. But if you see credit card defaults start to go through the roof... then that's going to falsify my thesis.”
Performance
Entry$199.56
Current$205.12
Since call+2.79%
Confidence72%
How this was scored
Entry$199.56Apr 22, 2026 · 18:45 UTC · paste.trade
Resolution$205.16Jul 3, 2026 · 14:56 UTC · resolve-claims-cron
Horizonnot specifiedparsed as default-30d
Verdict bandWIN ≥ +2% · LOSS ≤ −2%
ResolvedJul 3, 2026 · 14:56 UTC
Prices are point-in-time snapshots from the named provider. The verdict compares the return since entry against the band above.