STMicroelectronics (STM) — Hold, reframed as a PAT and power-management play. Every inter-satellite terminal needs a 1,000+ Hz PAT control loop. STM’s 28nm FD-SOI is the perfect fit — radiation tolerance without full rad-hard cost, automotive-grade pricing for million-unit constellations.

Lumentum (LITE) — Optionality. Supplies the EML at the heart of every intra-cluster terminal — structurally protected because silicon cannot emit light. But this is largely shifted volume. Benefits from space pricing premiums and inter-orbit demand; the space DC alone doesn’t justify a re-rating.

Starship is methane-fueled, adding incremental natural gas demand that reinforces our structural thesis on US gas producers (EXE, AR, CRK, EQT).

The binding constraint is ultimately semiconductor manufacturing and design — Musk will need to go deep into logic and memory foundry, 224G SerDes and beyond, or partner with Broadcom or Nvidia.

Companies such as Ayar Labs, Celestial AI, Lightmatter, and Ranovus are building high-bandwidth photonic interconnects optimized for the cost, power, and density requirements of large AI clusters. If compute moves to orbit, their technology can move with it

Tower has published radiation performance data (total ionizing dose, single-event latchup, and proton irradiation), while GlobalFoundries has published essentially none for Fotonix. GlobalFoundries should be removed from the Space DC supply chain thesis.

Corning (GLW) — Structural loser. Fiber demand declines as compute migrates from fiber-intensive terrestrial DCs to zero-fiber orbital ones. Not a short — 5G and FTTH provide other drivers — but the exponential-AI-fiber narrative weakens materially.

SPCX is the ultimate AI data-center and energy play, with optionality in coding agents and foundation models on top. Its sustainable long-term profitability hinges on one unique capability: delivering AI infrastructure while everyone else faces mounting bottlenecks in regulatory approval, power, and chips.

MACOM (MTSI) — Top pick. The only company benefiting from all three dynamics: near-term heritage (TIAs and drivers in Mynaric CONDOR and classified programs), superlinear content growth to 6.4T–12.8T, and relevance across both intra-cluster and inter-orbit terminals regardless of who designs the terminal.

Coherent (COHR) — Hold. Free-space optics and inter-orbit amplification. Genuinely incremental: precision optics (telescopes, coatings, filters) across all terminals, plus EDFAs for the longest links.