I think Hormuz stays closed through fall. I think sometime between now and Labor Day, people start to hit tank bottoms and oil charts start to do this.

market action of dollar down, bonds down, stocks down is capital flight. That's money leaving the dollar. Where is it going? Well, it's probably either buying commodities or paying down debt.

Japan, and more recently Korea, are trading like emerging markets. Since late last year, which is to say if you take the 10-year Treasury yield minus a 10-year JGB yield and compare that to the dollar-yen cross rate, higher relative yields in Japan are driving a weaker yen.

Fast forward to today, the adjusted Warren Buffett metric is now higher than it was in 1Q 2000. It's higher than it was in 4Q '21. It's the only time in 65 years— it's higher than it's been in 65 years. And the only time it's been close is 1Q 2000 and 4Q '21, both of which time were terrible times to own stocks.

it's bad for bonds, it's bad for stocks, it's bad for risk, it's bad for gold, it's bad for Bitcoin. I think gold and Bitcoin are telling us something wicked this way comes for risk assets.