I think Hormuz stays closed through fall. I think sometime between now and Labor Day, people start to hit tank bottoms and oil charts start to do this.

market action of dollar down, bonds down, stocks down is capital flight. That's money leaving the dollar. Where is it going? Well, it's probably either buying commodities or paying down debt.

Japan, and more recently Korea, are trading like emerging markets. Since late last year, which is to say if you take the 10-year Treasury yield minus a 10-year JGB yield and compare that to the dollar-yen cross rate, higher relative yields in Japan are driving a weaker yen.