@DavidSacks / appears on all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in
it was an actual study of over 21,000 firms in the US, and they looked at their payroll data combined with their spending on AI. And what they saw is that firms that spent the most on AI actually grew the fastest, and they tended to grow their headcount roughly 10% in the 2 years following the adoption of AI. And entry-level headcount rose even faster.
I think it's gonna lead to a boom because think about like just something like building a house.
just look at what happened to Figma. So according to the information, Anthropic quote unquote blindsided its then business partner with the launch of Claude Design.
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}AISO Market Calls classifies public statements from public sources. A classification such as long thesis, short thesis, or explicit call describes the content of the public statement and does not prove that the speaker actually entered, exited, or held a position. Market performance shown is calculated from public market data around the source publication or timestamp. It is not investment advice.
Sacks reads Meta's recent AI stumble as temporary because its ad-driven cash machine bankrolls a buildout rivals cannot match. The non-obvious link is that the bull case is about balance-sheet endurance, not current model quality.
Apple had huge news today where they announced massive price increases. And again, it's because DRAM now is less available because it's just being hoovered up by all the data centers.
it is now, like you said, the best open weight model for coding, software engineering, and long-context agent work. ... it was just a tick below Opus 4.8, and it was right up there with GPT-5.5.
I think we'll look back at some point in time and say that was a foolish way to think about Nvidia given its dominant position and its valuation relative to everyone else.
if you look at the growth rates right now, Anthropic does seem to be pulling away.
I think Anthropic's now at they seem to have pulled away from Open AI, which is not surprising and something I I predicted.
We hear very good things about Codex now based on GPT 5.5... Their rate of growth appears to be accelerating now because of 5.5. So, look, there's reason to believe that Open AI can take some share here.
We have the best companies in the world at doing that. We have Crowdstrike, we have Palo Alto Networks, we talked about that before. We have the best defense... what we should be doing... is getting these tools... in the hands of our cyber security industry.
they grew from roughly 10 billion of ARR to 30 billion, so it tripled. And then in April... They went from 30 to 44 billion of ARR... I think it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that they will hit that forecast of 10X this year, exiting the year at call it roughly 100 billion of ARR... unless something about their current trajectory changes, Anthropic will be the most powerful monopoly ever created in human history.
This is why the SpaceX IPO is going to trade at 40 to 50 times revenue, okay? So next year, if they do 40 to 50 billion, and this thing goes out at 2 trillion, right? That they're going to trade at a really high revenue multiple compared to the Mag 5 that are trading at like 25 times earnings. And there's only one person on the planet who has a future pipeline of innovation and the largest Tam in the world... and it's Elon, and it's deserved.
I'm sure that Google won't be asleep at the wheel. They're very, very good at coding. They've got a really good team
Let me just flag one other area that I think is maybe the white hot center within this red hot area of coding, which is cyber.
By the way, Salesforce today is down 9%. 140 billion enterprise value on 15 billion of free cash flow. This thing is trading at less than 10 times free cash flow. It's unbelievable.
if it's taking Anthropic, let's say one year to 10 X and it's taking Open AI two years to achieve a 10 X, then it's obvious which one's going to win... if they don't catch up soon to Travis's point, then you could see Anthropic taking a lead here that let's say over the next one or two years could be insurmountable.
Well, I think Google's clearly in the mix. I mean, DeepMind has an outstanding team
I think the market's probably being a little too pessimistic with respect to at least some of these software companies... there's probably a little bit of the baby being thrown out with the bathwater right now and there probably are some value buys in enterprise software.
just the top four hyperscalers, $350 billion of expected CapEx this year. On its way, I think Jensen said one trillion by 2030.
I guess you could say that Palantir is already one of them, right? It's an application company that's been turbo charged by these model capabilities.
I guess Meta sort of hit some headwinds, but they're going to continue investing tremendously in AI and they've got deep pockets to do it. So I think that they'll come back.
I have to acknowledge their products are very good. Everybody seems to say that they have the best coding assistant and they're carving out a very lucrative niche in enterprise.
you've got XAI, which I think is the best at current events because of the integration with X
Elon seems to be able to scale his data center, his training cluster the fastest
I don't think AI is going to get rid of Salesforce, but it could eat into their growth opportunity. We just don't know. What if it changes the pricing model?
Here's a prediction market on whether people believe the Citrini report's going to come true. Something like 12% believe the Citrini scenario is going to happen. But the truth is no one really knows... I actually don't believe in the Citrini or the Doomer take on this.
if there's a lot of competition at both those layers of the stack, do the chip companies get it all? I think it's a unclear question
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