@MichaelRStrain / appears on wealthion, wealthion, wealthion, wealthion, wealthion
No settled calls yet — credibility updates as call horizons resolve.
underlying inflation is around 3%. I think if anything, it's accelerating rather than decelerating. I think the risk of an acceleration of underlying inflation is greater than the risk of a deceleration in underlying inflation.
the equilibrium interest rate in the economy had gone up in 2022 relative to 2019, which meant that the economy could handle a much higher federal funds rate in 2022 than it could have in 2019.
I think we're in, in kind of a classic virtuous, uh, uh, cycle where we have, um, a strong economy. That strength is relatively broad-based, um, that is, uh, uh, resulting in low unemployment. Low unemployment means that people are seeing their incomes grow. Income growth is powering consumer spending.
{
"type": "trace.speaker",
"handle": "MichaelRStrain",
"name": "Michael R. Strain",
[
,
,
,
,
],
{
}
}AISO Market Calls classifies public statements from public sources. A classification such as long thesis, short thesis, or explicit call describes the content of the public statement and does not prove that the speaker actually entered, exited, or held a position. Market performance shown is calculated from public market data around the source publication or timestamp. It is not investment advice.
I think consumers are just more willing to dip into savings, to spend out of wealth, to do those sorts of things in order to sustain the level of spending they want to sustain. I think they're more willing to do those things today than they were prior to the pandemic.
I think underlying inflation is around 3%. I think if anything, it's accelerating rather than decelerating. I think the risk of an acceleration of underlying inflation is greater than the risk of a deceleration in underlying inflation. And I think we haven't really seen progress on inflation in well over a year.
I don't think the Fed is going to hike in 2026. I am out of step with the bond market in that view.
No reach data yet.
Drop another platform link to enrich this profile. Drop a link →