2y breakeven crashes to 1.9%, soft CPI forces Fed toward easing, liquidity surge lifts equities.
2y breakeven are telling a story that the rate hike expectations were not listening to.
+0.39%next period
Speakerguest
THE SHORT BEAR
@TheShortBear / appears on tweets, tweets, tweets, tweets, tweets, tweets, tweets, tweets, tweets, tweets, tweets, tweets
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No settled calls yet — credibility updates as call horizons resolve.
Speaker record
Foreign investors have pulled ~$120bn from Korean equities YTD; domestic absorption may be hitting its limit, pressuring prices lower.
Korean domestic investors bought all that foreign investors gave them.
+1.97%open horizon
CPI printed -0.422% MoM on deep energy deflation, crushing the rate-hike case and sending long bonds higher
Odds of a rate hike were 50% yesterday, fully off base in my view.
+0.23%open horizon
Dovish CPI shock kills 50% rate-hike odds priced in by markets, removing the overhang on equity valuations
Agent-readable speaker
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}AISO Market Calls classifies public statements from public sources. A classification such as long thesis, short thesis, or explicit call describes the content of the public statement and does not prove that the speaker actually entered, exited, or held a position. Market performance shown is calculated from public market data around the source publication or timestamp. It is not investment advice.