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the SpaceX IPO where we were also investors and we also bought in the IPO, I mean, it was textbook. It was a hugely successful IPO. They raised $75 billion at $1.75 trillion.
OpenAI's kind of got its swagger and mojo back. It's coming out just today with a whole new set of models... revenue has really ticked back up. The most recent kind of rumors I see on Twitter is around $70 billion next year.
If they exit the year at $100 billion, that means their GAAP revenue next year could be well over $100 billion. So based on the SpaceX success, I think it would be a blockbuster IPO.
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}AISO Market Calls classifies public statements from public sources. A classification such as long thesis, short thesis, or explicit call describes the content of the public statement and does not prove that the speaker actually entered, exited, or held a position. Market performance shown is calculated from public market data around the source publication or timestamp. It is not investment advice.
Software multiples slide further as AI agents threaten seat-based revenue, dropping a software basket that still trades richer than the chipmaker powering AI despite far slower growth.
I don't know another entrepreneur or another business that's a better bet on the future, right, than SpaceX. And so I think for most institutional investors, it's a must-buy, a must-own, it's set it and forget it
if you believe this to be true about long-running agents, then we're going to produce and consume more tokens in the future as far as the eye can see.
if you're Vernova,. And you say we only have a certain number of gas combustion engines. Now we can sell them to X.AI or we can sell them to one of these startup neo clouds. Who are you going to sell them to?
When a company goes public and the lockup expires, it moves out of that bucket. So this is going to be hundreds of billions of dollars of new late stage demand that is coming back to the market after kind of being out out of the market for a while.
the second you start spending $100 billion on CapEx annually, okay, you run into the AWS problem. What's the AWS problem? Now, I have all this compute, but I don't use it every day equally.
So now they're trading at about 22, 23 times real, SBC included, GAAP earnings. That's about where the market is trading. Yeah. So now just follow me on this. Software is trading— most software names are trading at a higher multiple than NVIDIA. Yeah, right. NVIDIA is trading about 13 times earnings for 70% growth for the thing that is the most essential thing in AI.
NVIDIA is trading about 13 times earnings for 70% growth for the thing that is the most essential thing in AI.
the front-facing solutions that they offer are more competitive with the models than something like Snowflake. Snowflake's the enabler of the models, whereas I think that Salesforce competes a bit more. So it's going to be more challenging.
there are certain software companies companies, Databricks, Snowflake, and ClickHouse, all of which we're investors in, which very clear to me they're in the token flow. As you consume more tokens, the amount of your database queries goes up.
We could have 10 to 20% pullbacks in the semiconductor stock as just like run-of-the-mill consolidation. Yeah. Yeah. Right. Run-of-the-mill consolidation. I mean, Micron has gone from a couple hundred bucks to $1,000.
They just had AI server revenues up 750% year over year, went from a $1 billion business to a $16 billion business. This stuff is real.
Meta's trading at 17 times fully taxed gap earnings, Nvidia at 19 times, Microsoft at 20 times... This is not the stuff that bubbles are made of... 80% of our exposures or more have been in compute, AI, memory.
the memory stocks that everybody's excited about, we have 25% of our portfolio in. SK Hynix, five times fully taxed gap earnings, Samsung six times, Micron seven times, right? This is not the stuff that bubbles are made of.
I would not be shocked if you see Anthropic exiting this year at $80 to $100 billion in revenue.
I'm a buyer of the shares today, notwithstanding all of the vibes that you describe.
there was a training run that happened in this crypto project called Bit Tenser. Subnet 3, they managed to train a 4 billion parameter Lama model totally distributed... which I thought was like a pretty crazy technical accomplishment.
Google has TPU, Amazon has Inferentia and Trainium. You know, everybody's sort of spinning up their own version of I think I can out Nvidia Nvidia, even though they also tend to be huge customers.
You've added many more partners including BYD.
the alternatives, the custom ASIC, AMD, others are going to cost 25 to 30 billion, and you're going to lose share.
Anthropic unquestionably has a lot of financial momentum... I bought a lot more since then, Jason. I bought a lot more since then.
love your children equally. They're both incredible companies. Anthropic unquestionably has a lot of financial momentum... and Open AI is seeing a lot of momentum themselves.
Your position, Brad, just to confirm it is we are going to leave the war in the next 30 days... I think the off ramp is that the United States declares victory... we degraded and we destroyed. That's what we came here to do.
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