IBM's Q2 miss is proof the AI enterprise ROI gap is real — legacy IT that can't show returns gets repriced hard
I think you're starting to see a little bit of the wheels come off
@chamath / appears on all-in, all-in, tweets, all-in, all-in, tweets, all-in, all-in, tweets, all-in, all-in, tweets, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, tweets, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, tweets, all-in, tweets, all-in, tweets, all-in, all-in, tweets, all-in, all-in, all-in, all-in, tweets, all-in, tweets, all-in, all-in, tweets
I think you're starting to see a little bit of the wheels come off
This is the intellectual version of a COVID Mask. You may think you're doing something smart but you're not.
If these guys end the year over $100 billion, I think that they're on a revenue trajectory that they could 3 to 5x again next year. We've never seen anything like this. Never.
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}AISO Market Calls classifies public statements from public sources. A classification such as long thesis, short thesis, or explicit call describes the content of the public statement and does not prove that the speaker actually entered, exited, or held a position. Market performance shown is calculated from public market data around the source publication or timestamp. It is not investment advice.
Chamath treats a Tesla-into-SpaceX consolidation under one Elon entity as a near-certainty, and unlike privately held SpaceX, Tesla is the only publicly tradeable leg of that merger. A long on TSLA is the routable way to own the upside if the entities combine.
Our token costs are doubling every 45 days... My upside is essentially flat... you need to use a lot more tokens to get to this next iteration of improvement because we've effectively already asymptoted.
the throttle, paradoxically to all of this, might not be the software, might not be the chips, it might be energy.
there is not a single country in the world that is not trying to figure out its own sovereign AI strategy. And I don't think they believe using a closed-source American model is the answer.
shorts of @theallinpod are growing very quickly. And overall usage ramp shows this kind of content driving a huge portion of our growth.
we reverse-engineered it into more than 100,000 plain-English rules in 40 days
The cost of producing software is collapsing. And when production costs collapse, value will migrate to whoever can guarantee the output.
If the monopoly —> duopoly —> oligopoly —> commodity cycle can happen in the most advanced areas of technology, in part accelerated by AI, what is the true value of "long term" cash flows?
A new study from Smarsh and FTI Consulting, out this week, found that 55 percent of enterprises are actively deploying AI right now, but only 26 percent say their governance frameworks have kept pace with that deployment.
55 percent of enterprises are actively deploying AI right now, but only 26 percent say their governance frameworks have kept pace with that deployment.
If you can close this auditability and governance gap with a traceable record of every decision, adoption can keep moving at full speed. If not, I suspect adoption will be forced to slow until these issues are resolved.
I think what'll happen is that you'll wipe out the California pensions and you'll wipe out the pension obligations and you'll do some sort of negotiated settlement.
The federal government is currently trying to do something hard and right: collapsing more than 100 separate HR systems into one.
AI is collapsing the cost of rebuilding and retiring old software
Tesla is one of the smartest, cracked and most advanced engineering companies in the world.
If an Enterprise asks our control plane to use an open weight model like GLM, instead, the costs fall even more dramatically. The migration is 16.4x cheaper but 3x slower but still works!
at some near point in the future all large enterprises - ie those currently spending millions per month or more on tokens so they seem brilliant to a Wall Street analyst or their Board - will have to rationalize why the would spend so much more for inefficiency, poorer outcomes and data leakage to providers that increasingly also want to compete with them
at some near point in the future all large enterprises - ie those currently spending millions per month or more on tokens so they seem brilliant to a Wall Street analyst or their Board - will have to rationalize why the would spend so much more for inefficiency, poorer outcomes and data leakage to providers that increasingly also want to compete with them.
A regulatory moat would do something similar for AI labs. It would move value from the person to the institution.
Pharma companies, who through their unchecked use of Anthropic, are driving revenues into what they think is a model provider but is in fact a competitor lurking in the shadows thereby accelerating their own demise.
I suspect any end market with reasonable ROCE that could be AI accelerated is on the table.
For the first time since 1996, the world's central banks hold more gold than U.S. Treasuries as a share of their reserves.
Silver spiked above $100 per ounce in January, sending manufacturers racing to redesign their products around a cheaper metal.
Platinum and palladium are shaped more by industrial demand, emissions rules, and the shift to electric vehicles.
here's a shipping container that you can just drop on a concrete pad somewhere, plug in the power, and let it rip.
It's an incredible company. It's a one of one. It's just a unique animal. I think that the highest price to sales was essentially these last few days, and now it's just going to grow into its valuation and generally just grow valuation.
I think the market's going to the moon.
a gigawatt now costs $100 billion, guys. Okay? So there's a huge capital moat that's a problem here as well, Sachs... when I started this project, it was like $4 or $5 billion and it's increased by 20x. So if you want to get all 3 gigawatts developed, I have to come up with $300 billion.
No reach data yet.
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