@chrisbloomstran / appears on semper-augustus, semper-augustus, semper-augustus, semper-augustus, semper-augustus, semper-augustus, semper-augustus
Newmont’s net margin grew over the same interval from 12% to 32%. The balance sheets are in terrific shape with an unbelievable net cash position. Returns on conservatively accounted for equity and capital are in the mid-20% range.
We added one small new position in Five Below to the portfolio in 2024, materially adding to it at lower prices when the White House launched its tariff war in early 2025.
Much of the global stock market reflects underlying pressure on profits and a compression in valuation, making numerous markets and individual stocks fundamentally cheap, both absolutely and certainly relative to the S&P 500 and its handful of larger components.
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}AISO Market Calls classifies public statements from public sources. A classification such as long thesis, short thesis, or explicit call describes the content of the public statement and does not prove that the speaker actually entered, exited, or held a position. Market performance shown is calculated from public market data around the source publication or timestamp. It is not investment advice.
The stock keeps grinding higher as a telematics data advantage turns market-share gains into fat underwriting margins, while GEICO plays catch-up and State Farm bleeds share.
OpenAI doesn't own its chips. It's dependent on NVIDIA for hardware and on Microsoft for Azure's cloud. It has negative unit economics, losing money on every query.
the illogic of expecting even a reasonable investment return on the billions, and what will soon be trillions, of dollars of capital being poured into the endeavor. We are witness to a growing reliance on debt, both on balance sheet and off, circular finance and accounting gimmickry.
The S&P 500 now trades for 26x current earnings against the second highest profit margin in the history of the stock market. That's against all stock markets. Anywhere in the world. Ever. High prices mixed with high margins are typically a recipe for mediocre future returns – or worse.
we likewise added another new company, Deckers Outdoor, to the portfolio in 2025, gradually at first and then suddenly. The company's shares were the fourth worst performing S&P 500 component of the year, down 49%. Buying initially near the low, and then meaningfully nearly at the low, our sizable investment earned us a positive 5.6% for the year.
Our combined investment in three retailers, Dollar General, Dollar Tree and Five Below, totaled 17.1% of our invested capital heading into 2025 and closed the year totaling 25.9% of our holdings. We added to the Five Below position near the yearly lows.
Despite materially trimming Kinross during the year as the price rose 204% to finance the purchase of other positions, the surge in the gold price is driving mining profitability through the roof.
AI-related capital expenditure outlays are enormous, amounting to multiples of the revenues produced from newly installed infrastructure (let alone enough, or any, profit required to satisfy a return on the capital spent). Data centers and chips are to AI as telecom equipment and fiber optic cable were to the internet. That is not a bullish pronouncement.
Oracle’s recent AI initiatives place it in the hyperscaler camp and firmly in the capital expenditure arms race, though unlike its peers the Oracle balance sheet is already laden with net debt of $105 billion at November 30, 2025 (and rising fast), mostly taken on over recent years to repurchase shares in large part to offset dilution from stock-based compensation. Already at four turns of debt to EBITDA, in the words of Parliament, they plan to tear the roof off the sucker.
Because Meta as 20% owner doesn’t control the entity, the $27.3 billion debt provided by Blue Owl (Step 2) used to finance it doesn’t appear as a liability on Meta’s consolidated balance sheet.
Google and Meta already have massive existing ad sales, scale and very high profitability. They have deep advertiser ecosystems, drawing from search, browsing, video, social media and messaging.
OxyChem is a competitor of Olin, which is one of Semper’s largest holdings. OxyChem is in the chlor-alkali business, which uses electricity to convert salt to chlorine and caustic soda.
Rising deficits likely will result in higher-than-target inflation and hence longer-term interest rates.
The shares of too many publicly traded insurance companies are priced today as though the good times will persist forever.
Dollar General’s shares declined to a very undervalued level.
much of everything else, from mid- and small-capitalization shares to international and emerging markets are at much more reasonable levels.
The shares of too many publicly traded insurance companies are priced today as though the good times will roll on forever. Chaucer must have known insurance underwriting was a mediocre, cyclical industry.
We are overall quite optimistic about the business of Dollar General, and likewise its Dollar Tree competitor.
BNSF faced three distinct populist measures over the past couple years... The order raises costs for the rails and ultimately for their customers.
How do you make money owning Costco at today’s valuation? You likely don’t, at least for a long time.
The stock climbed further in 2024, rising 31% in price over the year, closing the year trading for more than 35x to earnings.
Rising deficits likely will result in higher-than-target inflation. Lenders to the Treasury, particularly price-sensitive lenders, will require higher interest rates.
Determining that 2023’s energy profits are at “normal” or mid-cycle levels is likely a reasonable conclusion with profits back to 2008 levels. The good news for energy investors is that since 2015 the oil and gas sectors have been underinvesting in replacing reserves. Genuine scarcities may exist and may do so for a considerable period.
It seems the dominant robotaxi and auto insurance company to be found it necessary to lower prices to sell affordable cars. Lessons learned about operating leverage for sure.
Some sell side analysts model revenues growing from today's $59 billion to $150 billion over the next four years and earning margins close to 51.4% at present. Call it $75 billion in earnings in early 2028. That's “only” 23x earnings four years out at today's market cap.
China has no iron ore as a natural resource. It therefore imports 70% of seaborne iron ore, which is smelted to make steel and it internally consumes half of global supply.
China consumes 14 million barrels of oil per day, importing 11.3 million of the total in 2023... It is hard to expect 2023’s resurgence to continue for long with the population in decline.
Progressive leads in telematics, or the use of GPS in monitoring cars and driving habits to help properly rate risk and in setting premium. While the gap can be closed, Progressive has been more profitably gobbling up market share and passed GEICO last year as the second largest private passenger auto insurer in the U.S.
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