@fejau_inc / appears on forward-guidance, forward-guidance, forward-guidance, forward-guidance, forward-guidance, forward-guidance, forward-guidance, forward-guidance, forward-guidance, forward-guidance, forward-guidance
the trade hasn't played out yet, but I continue to really like gold. And like, these, like, it's just, it's all been washed out. All the momentum's in these other sectors. At a time where it looks like real yields are starting to peak out here.
all we needed for, for where Bitcoin was at and the fact that, like, you're pushing it and it wasn't going below $58K. We got like that one liquidation wick, like some guy got liquidated for like $700 million or something
even though oil is down to basically pre-war levels, like the disinflationary aspect of gasoline still has ways to go because it's not followed yet.
{
"type": "trace.speaker",
"handle": "fejau_inc",
"name": "Felix Jauvin",
[
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
,
],
{
}
}AISO Market Calls classifies public statements from public sources. A classification such as long thesis, short thesis, or explicit call describes the content of the public statement and does not prove that the speaker actually entered, exited, or held a position. Market performance shown is calculated from public market data around the source publication or timestamp. It is not investment advice.
you suddenly have this narrative come to a head where you have MicroStrategy right now is really struggling and Bitcoin's lost for a bit of a narrative... Is the best use of my money and capital to just give it to Saylor to sit and either do more financial leverage or do nothing with? There's things to do with capital now.
I think he has the summer. I think like there's a lot of tailwinds ahead here now. I think like you have oil going lower.
Real wages are decreasing. Like, wage growth is lackluster. I just don't know how you get this pronounced inflationary cycle without wage growth.
the market is fully bought into this idea of Kevin Wolf coming in next week to his first meeting and just being a turbo hawk, and he's going to tamp down inflation. So it feels like that's what gold is reacting here to. But I don't know, I just feel like, I feel like we're stretching the other direction now.
don't touch the hyperscalers, buy the things that the hyperscalers are buying funded by the things that they're selling, which is their debt and their equity.
these incomes, they're accelerating to the downside now. And therefore, to keep up with such an energy shock like we're seeing, they have to tap their savings rates. So you can see personal incomes are trending negative now.
Dude, I'm so long XLE right now.
the big question at hand is whether they'll allow NVIDIA chips to be sold into China. Because if that happens, obviously like the, there's a lot of runway for NVIDIA, which therefore means there's a lot of runway for equity indices because of how much it's benchmarked to it
If you look down at like the mid-caps, the small caps, their earnings are actually looking really good too. So this is the S&P 600. Earnings revisions are heading higher.
it's not that liquidity's topped and we're going into recession. It's almost the opposite. And you have to think about what assets you want to own, right? It's things like commodities or just like real things
ESG was just a zero rate phenomenon and as soon as real life costed something, it went away
US dollar usage is surging, which sounds very counter narrative to a lot of what you see these days about de-dollarization.
I think a great barbell hedge to that is going long December oil contracts.
the consumer's still spending even though prices are going up at the pump a lot. The ADP data, weekly employment changes, it's just surging right now. Like, we are seeing some form of a labor reacceleration.
I'm in the bets that I built earlier in the month of this compute thing, and I'm not in calls. I'm just in boring shares.
where we are on the budget deficit percentage of GDP... the deficit has gone from 7% to almost 5% over the last year and a bit... now we're at a 5% of GDP deficit. I feel like there's room here. For them to do something and some sort of can kicking situation.
Allbirds, which basically went bankrupt, just decided to execute a $50 million convertible financing facility to pivot from direct-to-consumer friggin' shoes to becoming an AI compute infrastructure company.
I've been very long the December and March 27. And those things were up the next day, which is kind of crazy... I felt good about that trade construction... I still just love that trade. I love my entry, so I'm kind of just holding tight.
a lot of these non-US trades have gotten rinsed. And LATAM, China, like anywhere but US kind of seems to be like, I think you want to just go right back to that well.
a basket of commodities, even I mean, you have to be a little more careful, like we were just saying on the oil front and where you play the curve. But I think a basket is so required
If you were told you could short the S&P 500 3% from all-time highs when the straddle or moose has been closed for 45 days, you would take that blindfolded every day of the week. The fundamentals and macro outlook to me don't justify us being 3% off highs.
you see gold coming absolutely out of this severe equity correlation, like, grave that it seemed, and it's trying to peek its head back up. And so every time they like swap the bond yields down, gold rears its head.
to me it looks like a best case is an Iran-controlled toll paid in foreign currency. And if you remove a third of the world's commodity supply that used to be traded in dollars to now trade it in anything but dollars, That's a pretty big hit to dollar, USD, hegemony.
the hilarious part about all of this is that it's made China a safe haven for global bond markets and capital.
over the past few years, airlines have stopped hedging their jet fuel... So none of them are hedged going into this.
this is the GPU rentals, slide 45. Like we're clearly in some sort of secular growth in AI. Like there's no doubt about it... But look at the demand for this stuff. I mean, it's your GPUs or rentals are rising
the US, which is largely energy dependent and a reserve currency, And then on the other side of the Atlantic, you have all these countries that are much more acutely exposed to what's going on in Iran. My assumption with those two vectors is that I feel like we would see, and we should see a continued dollar rally.