@jvb_xyz / appears on 1000x, 1000x, 1000x, 1000x, 1000x, 1000x
you bet your boots they're going to be selling the second they can, but they can't. So until then, it's just indices buying and retail FOMOing in right now. So you can be probably comfortably long, but the level is going to end when the unlocks start happening. So if you're long this stuff and you're not mapping the unlocks, you're going to get torpedoed.
if you look at what's causing the sell-off in Bitcoin, the active float in Bitcoin has become Michael Saylor. Michael Saylor has a credit problem, right? That's basically why Bitcoin is underperforming.
We had a full-blown war with Iran and we barely had a sell-off. We had the Strait of Hormuz shut and we barely had a sell-off. What is going to tank the market?
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}AISO Market Calls classifies public statements from public sources. A classification such as long thesis, short thesis, or explicit call describes the content of the public statement and does not prove that the speaker actually entered, exited, or held a position. Market performance shown is calculated from public market data around the source publication or timestamp. It is not investment advice.
But an ocean of oil is about to whack the market. You're seeing it in crude futures. This is extremely bearish inflation, meaning I expect inflation to drop globally.
because oil just collapsed on the back of the Iran stuff, I don't think we're facing an inflection point.
It's going to flare back up, in my opinion.
Maybe just being short Verizon is a good bet if Starlink becomes a thing.
I'm a little more cash heavy than I'm used to right now. I've lightened up a lot on crypto at higher levels. I've lightened up even on the S&P and equities. Not on MLPX. I'm ready to go face first back into the markets if there's a serious pullback, but I would want to see like a December 2018 style rinse or a March, April 2020 style rinse.
One of my favorite megatrend assets that I've been long since 2024, it's up, I don't know, I think it's up like 25% this year, is MLPX. That's a pipeline. It's basically like a REIT for pipelines.
the plain old Chanel bag... used to cost €5,000... Now, it's like €11,000 or €12,000... These are compounding way faster than the S&P.
I'm not worried about Dell trading at 23 times forward earnings unless those forward earnings are going to revert to their what they looked like in the past. And that won't happen until this chart goes all the way back down, in my opinion.
I'm still long a ton of Bitcoin from lower levels, so I'm still eating it. But I've decided I'm going to rebuy those units when Saylor is finished blowing up
What do you think of selling MSTR and buying BTC notional neutral? MicroStrategy is still trading at 1.2x NAV. That doesn't seem like it's going to last. I bet it goes to a discount pretty soon as everybody gets blown up.
I remain of the opinion that we are not going to stock out of oil globally and allow this to persist into a dire economic depression scenario.
if he gets hit with hard inflation numbers again, next month, we're probably going to see rate hike prices go up on those contracts even more. And that's, that's going to spook the market a little bit.
we're seeing DRAM, DRAM contract prices surge 95%, 95% in Q1 of 2026 versus Q4 of 2025.
Make sure that Ethereum, I mean, even Ethereum is doing very poorly now... Finally sell out of their Ethereum. And it's because there's no, there's no way forward now.
I'm still 50% cash because if inflation numbers are coming up... I'm quite literally half cash, half stock right now.
you're looking at something that I do think probably has some capped upside here because it is already so large.
Hood's kind of an interesting one... Their price action has been really good over the last 3 days, and I think it continues... they were tied to the price action of crypto for a long time... And finally, it's broken away.
I think Palantir probably takes a bit of a run. Now, for a fundamental reason, no, but because it's an AI defense stock and both defense and AI are sort of hot now, this is the way that the market is trading.
that's one reason why Zcash has been doing so well, is because it... taking up the mantle of that thesis for Bitcoin.
I think I sold it like $116 average price and it went down to $105 and now it's back and NASDAQ's ripping today. But I do think as a trader, you always have to understand that the most dangerous thing about a market is when it has no bear case.
Hormuz is still shut. The world is short, like somewhere between 10 and 15 million barrels a day.
Memory, like Micron trades at 35 times earnings. Per the rule of thumb, DRAM price appreciation rubric that we sort of set out on the last podcast, earnings could literally triple or probably will triple in the next year or less. So in my view, Micron's trading at like less than 15 times forward earnings.
I don't think it's going to happen.
So, of what I reduced in my portfolio, that I alluded to earlier in the pod, about two-thirds of that was BTC, GBTC to be specific. I want to rebuy at lower levels. I'm still long-term bullish.
When forward 12 months of physical chip demand is undersupplied by 5 to 10%, the price of memory doubles. Right now it's undersupplied by somewhere between 45 and 50%.
Are the causes of the sell-off temporary, evanescent, or are they structural, fundamental, long-term? In commodity speak, supply shock, demand shock, or a structural trend. Trends you can ride, shocks you fade.
Korea has memory. It produces DRAM, NAND. It produces packaging. It produces racks. It produces all of the unglamorous infrastructure that makes the AI current. SK Hynix just recently said Chip demand is exceeding manufacturing capacity.