Quinn Thompson

A US export ban on oil and gas would mean the world needs fewer dollars, an unspoken bear case that drags the dollar down and kicks off US asset selling.

December rate futures look interesting, push comes to shove Trump gets his cuts the moment equities start hitting the fan.

Short Europe, it's the most exposed to the oil shock and has the least flexible central bank, forced to hike into a slowdown, a total disaster.

Short Japan equities, an energy-import economy getting crushed by the supply shock while the dollar holds tailwinds in times of madness.

Base ag commodities are massively underpositioned, fuel and fertilizer costs are spiking into spring planting while farm supply collapses and food demand can't be cut.

Every day energy infrastructure gets blown up, US natural gas equities get more valuable, this Qatar field is a decade of supply gone, not a band-aid.

US stocks have a hard ceiling here, even if oil falls to 80 the Fed still won't cut and liquidity stays bad while foreign money flees.

Volatility products climb as a contested November election nears, with desperation and falling poll numbers feeding a steady fear bid that any calm-market complacency underprices.

Agriculture is the most bullish trade as the oil spike drives fertilizer and food inflation while farm margins sit at record lows and bankruptcies surge.

Long-end Treasury yields keep rising as the Treasury and Fed deliberately shrink the balance sheet and let the long end float higher.

A bad year to own the S&P 500 because oil inflation traps the Fed on hold and puts a hard lid on stock prices and multiples.

Cash is a position, be more cautious into the midterms because a huge vol event with record stakes is sitting on the horizon.

Banks and small caps have no case here, the consumer is getting squeezed by inflation and a shrinking nest egg, and that means credit problems.

Treasury bonds are a disaster waiting to happen, inflation keeps policy tight now and election-year stimulus steepens the curve later.

Big tech is a sitting duck as oil-driven inflation sends bond yields up and squeezes the rich valuations holding these stocks aloft.

Uranium miners and physical-uranium holders catch a structural bid as Europe reverses its nuclear phase-out, restarting reactors and chasing fuel into a market with years of underinvested supply.

BDC stocks bleed as their software-heavy loan books get marked down, redemption queues force selling, and the looming refinancing wall turns the riskiest credit sour first.

Gold miners are printing dough with spot way above breakeven and the ground still valued at a fraction of NAV, and an M&A wave is just kicking off.

Bitcoin is breaking away from software because it smells the weird stimulus Trump will throw at markets to save himself before the midterms.

Software stocks look like death, breaking every moving average as AI eats their lunch, and the real damage comes when earnings finally roll over.

Long-dated Treasury prices slide as the Fed steps back from the long end, dumping supply on a market with no backstop while front-end cuts steepen the curve.

The yen breaks 160 and keeps sliding because Japan imports all its energy and most of its food, and no amount of official jawboning can stop it.

The dollar is being manipulated hand over fist to prop up stocks and suppress yields, and that ball control eventually breaks down.

Long-term US bond yields are set to blow past 5%, every intervention to pin the short end just loads more pressure on the long end.

The NASDAQ gets flushed when Japan's currency mess forces the cheap-borrowing trade to unwind, and crowded tech is exactly where the unwind lands.

The yen is going to crack above 160 no matter how hard Japan defends it, with the worst debt and demographics in the developed world and a fresh inflation shock leaving no good options.

Every agricultural commodity on the screen is set to get worse, with grocery costs already tripled and quality falling.

Owning a home with long-term fixed-rate debt is the strongest play around, because policymakers will never let asset owners or homeowners get hurt.

Bullish homes and land in coveted areas, because the cost to replace a building keeps climbing while cheap fixed-rate money chases hard assets.

Every commodity on the screen is ripping, because suppressing rates while inflation runs hot is exactly how 2021 started all over again.

Time to sell Bitcoin and buy gold, because the safe-haven baton is handing back to metals and you can see it in the chart already.

Bonds get crushed either way, because if the war ends growth surges and yields rip, and if it doesn't oil to 150 or 200 wrecks them anyway.

The purest AI data center buildout stock rips when a headline bill to halt construction lands dead on arrival and the supply-constrained buildout keeps compounding.

Retail and Main Street stocks are getting crushed while only the AI mega caps make new highs, as the average consumer drowns in negative real wages.

Short long bonds and just give it time, because every liquidity trick they pull to suppress yields only makes the long end blow out worse later.

Housing replacement cost keeps rising as inflation drives up the price of everything, even with homebuilders beaten down.

Tech leadership could be topping out for a long time as trillions in new IPO supply force investors to sell semis and mega-cap names to make room.

US oil and gas companies are printing cash and buying back stock as a price premium stays in oil while the country drains its reserves into a vulnerable spot.

The market is pricing two rate hikes off a temporary oil shock, but central banks dont hike into energy spikes, so that bet should reverse.

Bonds keep getting hammered as inflation runs above 3.5 and soon over 4 percent, with no real relief until late this year and yields heading toward 5.