Tyler Neville

“I think they're figuring out that you can't actually save money in fixed income anymore because look at stocks as a percentage of household financial assets... I don't know where you put your money besides stocks.”

“even though margins are more than double what they were at in 2020, the ratio is still the same. So if you have some sort of crazy policy, like a yield curve control or a tax on boomers... The dollar would roll over.”

“this is the ratio between the two. And we're at a low where in 2000 we saw... the tech bubble burst and then the Dow Transports took off... if you see the capital concentration out of tech into real stuff, I think this line should mean revert to the upside.”

“GPU availability for 200 has collapsed to zero. H100 is close behind. Whatever happens with the war, the AI complex is likely to lead any true sustainable bull market. Unsurprising to see SMH less than 1% from an all-time high.”

“a lot of this is, is anchored to these real commodities in the real world. That we are dependent on to actually get to that point. And maybe there's some further inflation upside related to that.”

“housing really has a major imbalance here. There's much more supply demographically, and housing prices will eventually, I think, adjust. Boomers have so much equity built up that they don't want to hit the bid, but eventually I think they will hit the bid.”

“concentrate on the sectors that actually have underlying demand no matter what, which is like, AI infrastructure, gold, energy stocks”

“concentrate on the sectors that actually have underlying demand no matter what, which is like, AI infrastructure, gold, energy stocks are probably buying back stocks.”

“states are now stopping data center builds. Which actually reinforces the states like Texas that are allowing data center bills. It's like this suction of global jobs or US jobs will keep sucking to states that make it advantageous like Florida, Texas.”

“the plebs are rising together in one way or another, and that's generally inflationary in a lot of senses.”

“if the yen really breaks 160, the dollar wrecking ball kind of, if it breaks with volume and power, I think the dollar wrecking ball emerges and causes credit, credit problems.”

“a generation of men and women got wealthy off commercial real estate and now these buildings are literally like just going to fucking sit there. And I don't know what the hell they're going to do to them”

“now we actually are actually moving into real growth, which is why hardware stocks are working now”

“this ties into the AI trade a lot because what does China have that we don't is they have the power. They can build nuclear reactors faster... we actually are short power here in terms of like we need more power to energize all the models.”

“this is S&P call volume... stuff like this makes me really, really concerned because it's all a giant, you know, just a giant like gamma trade... at some point, if there's a problem, the reverse is really, really bad.”

“this is the NASDAQ price to free cash flow is a lot higher than the PE ratio because they're set—”

“from a positioning perspective, I'd rather be selling like the price of insurance. If implied volatility is high, right? The price of insurance insurance is high. So if you have a view, you might as well be selling volatility here.”

“in the face of all the euphoria, I'd say, this is kind of interesting. This is from Piper. Median weekly S&P return when 10-year is rising by level.”

“The yen no matter what they're trying to do, keeps bumping up like close to that 160 level and the dollar keeps going higher and higher. And I think we're obviously getting that 1998 Asian financial crisis influx into US markets”

“On a short-term basis, I do think we're like super frothy on the deriv side. If you get an unwind, it's going to be really painful, especially because I think retail's piled in here.”

“I think we saw a lot of the software stuff like Snowflake caused a big squeeze in software and I could see there be like a deleveraging of other frothy sectors and a short squeeze”

“At this point, I don't think they're going to hike at all. I think this is, you know— This is wartime policy. And basically because we have a massive deficit, we have $1 trillion of interest, a massive amount of debt to be rolled, I think we're getting our answer, which is the market's telling us we're growing our way out of this no matter what.”

“the dollar was basically set up to break out this morning. Like we're watching it tick higher and higher through 100. And this is causing gold imploding.”

“the policy rate is too high on nominal yields while inflation's dropping. So the Fed's kind of too tight here... breakeven's going lower, right? So I think inflation's dropping here. And the Fed is behind on easing now.”

“there's a couple of Bitcoin miners that are selling their Bitcoin to actually finance their AI buildout now. That's probably largely the supply of why Bitcoin's been really struggling is that the, the miners are actually transitioning to, to their power to AI”

“the yen. This is a super long-term chart back to the '70s. You can kind of see we were basing from like, I don't know, 1985 to basically now.”

“Bitcoin serves a purpose long term when there's not real growth and when governments keep stewing the economy with fake money, right?”

“I don't think the hyperscalers will, 'cause their free cash flow is going down. They might not be the play”

“real rates are tightening global liquidity pretty hard. We're watching, we have a bunch of charts to back this up, but the dollar's breaking out here higher”

“the 10-year yield went to 450 almost and just gets smashed down today because it really is putting a pinprick in potentially growth and definitely inflation”

“you could potentially see a lot of money come out of large cap tech and go into a lot of other interesting stuff. And new leaders emerge, right?”

“the biggest loser in all this is... passive management and like closet indexers... there's so much dispersion in the market right now. And that's so— I think it's so healthy.”

“it's so economical to sell your power to AI companies. Now you get a 10-year deal for billions of dollars instead of mining Bitcoin at a paltry sum at this price.”

“you see the chart between like Micron and Bitcoin. It's like completely inverse. And there's that says a lot. You know, it's, it's because there's things that actually are making lots of money and they're at relatively cheap valuations.”

“It's rotational. It's not like 2008 where you see credit spreads blow out. There's a massive crisis. Everything is going to different sectors. So that's sort of what I, if you're, if you're in the right sectors, like industrials are crushing it, making new highs, banks are crushing it, making new highs.”

“A lot of the, the precious metals went from— what's so fascinating to me is how extreme things get. You get, you know, a couple months ago everyone was talking about the debasement trade.”

“I'm pretty sure, you know, we, we're seeing the dollar rolling over here now. The dollar kind of looks like toppy.”