@GeorgeGammon / appears on thoughtful-money, thoughtful-money, thoughtful-money, thoughtful-money, thoughtful-money
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And we're exporting to those countries who are getting decimated. By the dollar going higher and higher and higher. So at a certain point, the dollar is destroying our trading partners. The dollar is destroying our customers.
In the past year and a half, every time that the yen has got to 160, the Ministry of Finance or the BOJ comes in and defends the currency. How do they do that? They take their dollar FX reserves, they sell them, they sell them into the market and buy yen.
if we're at the point in the credit cycle where it does start to impact the unemployment rate, then you have the passive bid turning into a passive sell.
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}AISO Market Calls classifies public statements from public sources. A classification such as long thesis, short thesis, or explicit call describes the content of the public statement and does not prove that the speaker actually entered, exited, or held a position. Market performance shown is calculated from public market data around the source publication or timestamp. It is not investment advice.
I would expect it with commercial real estate. I'd expect it maybe private credit. I don't know that I'd expect it in the Treasury market. And the reason I wouldn't expect it in the Treasury market is because the marginal buyer and seller there is going to be the banks.
I don't like housing. You know, if interest rates go up, that's not really great for housing. Interest rates go down, that tells you the economy is getting worse, and that ain't great for housing. So I wanted to short Lennar, which is ticker LEN.
just look at the cross rates between the dollar and like the Indian rupee, the Indonesian rupee, the South Korean won, the Japanese yen, and you look at like a 1-year chart or a 5-year chart, and it is unbelievable, the depreciation of those currencies versus the dollar.
it's been getting worse. It hasn't been getting better. So, just because it hasn't really been out in the headlines, the trend is going the exact same direction.
You've got the 2-year Treasury trading like 4.15 with Fed funds at like 3.5. So, what that means is the market has gone from expecting a Fed rate cut to likely expecting a Fed rate hike in the next, who knows, in the next couple quarters or something like that.
But we saw today, just as we speak, the strategy is coming out saying that they're going to have to start selling Bitcoin. And not just 32. They're going to have to start selling probably billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin.
I think it's Fourth Turning. Yeah, you're in the Fourth Turning, and it's probably going to get worse before it gets better. And if it gets worse, then that likely means the dollar goes up and starts destroying and being more of a problem for all these other currencies
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