thoughtful-money

AI compute demand outruns supply for years, so the biggest tech profits keep compounding and stocks keep ripping.

Nvidia's profits keep exploding as everyone races to buy its chips into a compute shortage.

Google transformed into an AI vendor, growing revenue without growing costs, so profits keep climbing 80%.

Memory chipmakers rode a price spike with no moat, so their profits are vulnerable once supply catches up.

An oil price spike, not the missiles themselves, is the real trigger that could crack the market

Power, not chips or software, is the real bottleneck in AI, favoring nuclear buildout plays

Semiconductors are building a head-and-shoulders top, and if they break down the whole market drags lower with them

Earnings estimates going near-parabolic set up disappointment as the biggest hidden risk to stocks

The dollar is too strong and policymakers will be forced into a Plaza Accord 2.0 to knock it down

Japan keeps burning dollar reserves to prop up the yen, and when it runs out the yen spirals into crisis

Sunbelt and Mountain West home prices keep sliding as distressed sellers capitulate and inventory piles up

Florida home prices set to keep falling as net in-migration collapsed to a 35-year low

Shortage states like New York, Connecticut and Illinois keep rising near-term as migration normalizes

Midwest home prices poised to rise as migration flips positive against tight, low supply