@kevinmuir / appears on thoughtful-money, thoughtful-money, thoughtful-money, thoughtful-money, thoughtful-money, thoughtful-money, thoughtful-money, thoughtful-money
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we have a situation where the equity risk premium is almost completely the reverse... What that means is that the equities are priced for a lot of perfection... when we think about this for the next 5 or 10 years, if you're buying at this price, it's not something that's going to do well over the long run.
I love the Canadian ones, especially because they're— the life of their reserves with these oil sands is just astronomical. And so the Canadian ones especially.
by the way, the miners are just like the energy stocks. They're dirt cheap. And if anything, I, if I, if I probably had to pick what to own, I'd probably pick the miners over the, over the actual metal right now.
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}AISO Market Calls classifies public statements from public sources. A classification such as long thesis, short thesis, or explicit call describes the content of the public statement and does not prove that the speaker actually entered, exited, or held a position. Market performance shown is calculated from public market data around the source publication or timestamp. It is not investment advice.
It has never been more important than you have an SPR. So just like the surprise, um, during the last few months has been that oil didn't go to $200, I think the surprise for the next 2 months will be that oil doesn't go to $40 and that this ends up being bid at a surprising amount by governments throughout the world
the whole world has forgotten that semiconductors are cyclical industries... that's part of the reason that the P/Es are declining as these stocks earn money, because the market understands that there will be, uh, a rolling over eventually of those profits
now all of a sudden the small, the little mom and pops are going to be able to compete with the Amazons. And then you should no longer pay as much for Amazon because the smaller guys will be able to compete with them.
this dramatic, um, push to use AI over the last 3 months has given the market a false signal
during the war, that thing rallied to a 20 times earnings level. And now with all the pessimism out there regarding the, the coming glut in oil... We're down to 12. So I like, you know, I'm buying a cheap asset that I think is going to be bid much better.
what you see in this situation when the Fed gets hawkish is that the long end often gets bid and especially versus the short end. And that is exactly what happened coming out of the Fed's meeting.
Back in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, I made the argument that the world had changed... if you're sitting there and you're the People's Bank of China and you have a large FX reserve... you look at what happened to Russia and you say, that could happen to us
in about 2018, it just took off. And I can't remember the last number. It's, it's like $30 trillion that the US is bigger than the entire rest of the market
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